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Measuring tech emergence: A contest

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  • Porter, Alan L.
  • Chiavetta, Denise
  • Newman, Nils C.

Abstract

We conducted a contest to predict highly active research topics. Participants analyzed ten years of Web of Science abstract records in a target technological domain (synthetic biology) so as to indicate cutting edge sub-topics likely to be actively pursued in the following two years. We describe contest procedures and results provided by thirteen participating teams.

Suggested Citation

  • Porter, Alan L. & Chiavetta, Denise & Newman, Nils C., 2020. "Measuring tech emergence: A contest," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:159:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520310027
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hanning Guo & Scott Weingart & Katy Börner, 2011. "Mixed-indicators model for identifying emerging research areas," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 89(1), pages 421-435, October.
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    5. Li, Munan & Porter, Alan L. & Suominen, Arho, 2018. "Insights into relationships between disruptive technology/innovation and emerging technology: A bibliometric perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 285-296.
    6. Zhang, Yi & Lu, Jie & Liu, Feng & Liu, Qian & Porter, Alan & Chen, Hongshu & Zhang, Guangquan, 2018. "Does deep learning help topic extraction? A kernel k-means clustering method with word embedding," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 1099-1117.
    7. Suominen, Arho & Peng, Haoshu & Ranaei, Samira, 2019. "Examining the dynamics of an emerging research network using the case of triboelectric nanogenerators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 820-830.
    8. Ávila-Robinson, Alfonso & Miyazaki, Kumiko, 2013. "Dynamics of scientific knowledge bases as proxies for discerning technological emergence — The case of MEMS/NEMS technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(6), pages 1071-1084.
    9. Kwon, Seokbeom & Liu, Xiaoyu & Porter, Alan L. & Youtie, Jan, 2019. "Research addressing emerging technological ideas has greater scientific impact," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    10. Kevin W. Boyack & Richard Klavans, 2010. "Co-citation analysis, bibliographic coupling, and direct citation: Which citation approach represents the research front most accurately?," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 61(12), pages 2389-2404, December.
    11. Pao-Long Chang & Chao-Chan Wu & Hoang-Jyh Leu, 2010. "Using patent analyses to monitor the technological trends in an emerging field of technology: a case of carbon nanotube field emission display," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 82(1), pages 5-19, January.
    12. Iñaki Bildosola & Pilar Gonzalez & Paz Moral, 2017. "An approach for modelling and forecasting research activity related to an emerging technology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(1), pages 557-572, July.
    13. Philip Shapira & Seokbeom Kwon & Jan Youtie, 2017. "Tracking the emergence of synthetic biology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(3), pages 1439-1469, September.
    14. Ying Huang & Jannik Schuehle & Alan L. Porter & Jan Youtie, 2015. "A systematic method to create search strategies for emerging technologies based on the Web of Science: illustrated for ‘Big Data’," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(3), pages 2005-2022, December.
    15. Sanjay K. Arora & Alan L. Porter & Jan Youtie & Philip Shapira, 2013. "Capturing new developments in an emerging technology: an updated search strategy for identifying nanotechnology research outputs," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 95(1), pages 351-370, April.
    16. Stephen F. Carley & Nils C. Newman & Alan L. Porter & Jon G. Garner, 2017. "A measure of staying power: Is the persistence of emergent concepts more significantly influenced by technical domain or scale?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 2077-2087, June.
    17. Péter Érdi & Kinga Makovi & Zoltán Somogyvári & Katherine Strandburg & Jan Tobochnik & Péter Volf & László Zalányi, 2013. "Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 95(1), pages 225-242, April.
    18. Wang, Zhinan & Porter, Alan L. & Wang, Xuefeng & Carley, Stephen, 2019. "An approach to identify emergent topics of technological convergence: A case study for 3D printing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 723-732.
    19. Lee, Changyong & Kwon, Ohjin & Kim, Myeongjung & Kwon, Daeil, 2018. "Early identification of emerging technologies: A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 291-303.
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    22. Serhat Burmaoglu & Olivier Sartenaer & Alan Porter & Munan Li, 2019. "Analysing the theoretical roots of technology emergence: an evolutionary perspective," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 97-118, April.
    23. Zhang, Yi & Porter, Alan & Chiavetta, Denise & Newman, Nils C. & Guo, Ying, 2019. "Forecasting technical emergence: An introduction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 626-627.
    24. Janghyeok Yoon & Kwangsoo Kim, 2011. "Identifying rapidly evolving technological trends for R&D planning using SAO-based semantic patent networks," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 88(1), pages 213-228, July.
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    26. Stephen F. Carley & Nils C. Newman & Alan L. Porter & Jon G. Garner, 2018. "An indicator of technical emergence," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(1), pages 35-49, April.
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    4. Wooseok Jang & Yongtae Park & Hyeonju Seol, 2021. "Identifying emerging technologies using expert opinions on the future: A topic modeling and fuzzy clustering approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 6505-6532, August.

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