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Measuring tech emergence: A contest

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  • Porter, Alan L.
  • Chiavetta, Denise
  • Newman, Nils C.

Abstract

We conducted a contest to predict highly active research topics. Participants analyzed ten years of Web of Science abstract records in a target technological domain (synthetic biology) so as to indicate cutting edge sub-topics likely to be actively pursued in the following two years. We describe contest procedures and results provided by thirteen participating teams.

Suggested Citation

  • Porter, Alan L. & Chiavetta, Denise & Newman, Nils C., 2020. "Measuring tech emergence: A contest," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:159:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520310027
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Ying Huang & Jannik Schuehle & Alan L. Porter & Jan Youtie, 2015. "A systematic method to create search strategies for emerging technologies based on the Web of Science: illustrated for ‘Big Data’," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(3), pages 2005-2022, December.
    9. Sanjay K. Arora & Alan L. Porter & Jan Youtie & Philip Shapira, 2013. "Capturing new developments in an emerging technology: an updated search strategy for identifying nanotechnology research outputs," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 95(1), pages 351-370, April.
    10. Stephen F. Carley & Nils C. Newman & Alan L. Porter & Jon G. Garner, 2017. "A measure of staying power: Is the persistence of emergent concepts more significantly influenced by technical domain or scale?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 2077-2087, June.
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    14. Serhat Burmaoglu & Olivier Sartenaer & Alan Porter & Munan Li, 2019. "Analysing the theoretical roots of technology emergence: an evolutionary perspective," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 97-118, April.
    15. Zhang, Yi & Porter, Alan & Chiavetta, Denise & Newman, Nils C. & Guo, Ying, 2019. "Forecasting technical emergence: An introduction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 626-627.
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    20. Ávila-Robinson, Alfonso & Miyazaki, Kumiko, 2013. "Dynamics of scientific knowledge bases as proxies for discerning technological emergence — The case of MEMS/NEMS technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(6), pages 1071-1084.
    21. Kwon, Seokbeom & Liu, Xiaoyu & Porter, Alan L. & Youtie, Jan, 2019. "Research addressing emerging technological ideas has greater scientific impact," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    22. Kevin W. Boyack & Richard Klavans, 2010. "Co-citation analysis, bibliographic coupling, and direct citation: Which citation approach represents the research front most accurately?," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 61(12), pages 2389-2404, December.
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    25. Wang, Zhinan & Porter, Alan L. & Wang, Xuefeng & Carley, Stephen, 2019. "An approach to identify emergent topics of technological convergence: A case study for 3D printing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 723-732.
    26. Stephen F. Carley & Nils C. Newman & Alan L. Porter & Jon G. Garner, 2018. "An indicator of technical emergence," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(1), pages 35-49, April.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Li, Xin & Wen, Yang & Jiang, Jiaojiao & Daim, Tugrul & Huang, Lucheng, 2022. "Identifying potential breakthrough research: A machine learning method using scientific papers and Twitter data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

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