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Unraveling the space grammar of terrorist attacks: A TWC approach

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  • Buscema, Massimo
  • Sacco, Pier Luigi
  • Massini, Giulia
  • Della Torre, Francesca
  • Brogi, Marco
  • Salonia, Massimo
  • Ferilli, Guido

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to the analysis and prediction of the spatial pattern of terrorist attacks. Our analysis makes use of a new methodology that is based upon a topological rather than geometric approach. It exploits the space grammar of the observed events to derive complex inferences which relate to the deep structural layers of the data generating process, and to the organizational architecture of its spatial distribution. We test our methodology on two of the currently most important and virulent theaters of terrorist activity, Libya and Syria, and we find that our methodology provides a rich array of insights which cannot be expected to be generated by more traditional geographical profiling methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Buscema, Massimo & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Massini, Giulia & Della Torre, Francesca & Brogi, Marco & Salonia, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido, 2018. "Unraveling the space grammar of terrorist attacks: A TWC approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 230-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:132:y:2018:i:c:p:230-254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.02.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Buscema, Massimo & Massini, Giulia & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2018. "The Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC): A topological approach to the time-space structure of epidemic and pseudo-epidemic processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 582-627.
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    8. Guido Ferilli & Pier Luigi Sacco & Massimo Buscema & Giorgio Tavano Blessi, 2015. "Understanding Cultural Geography as a Pseudo-Diffusion Process: The Case of the Veneto Region," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-28, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Buscema, Paolo Massimo & Della Torre, Francesca & Breda, Marco & Massini, Giulia & Grossi, Enzo, 2020. "COVID-19 in Italy and extreme data mining," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
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    4. Godé, Cécile & Brion, Sébastien, 2024. "The affordance-actualization process of predictive analytics: Towards a configurational framework of a predictive policing system," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

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