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The temporal dynamics of sensemaking: A hindsight–foresight analysis of public commission reporting into the past and future of the “new terrorism”

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  • MacKay, R. Bradley
  • Parks, Ryan W.

Abstract

The aim of this article is to extend sensemaking theory in public commission reporting by drawing attention to, and demonstrating differences in the temporal dynamics between past and future, hindsight and foresight within the sensemaking/sensegiving processes of two public commission reports. They are The Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States and The United States Commission into 21st Century Terrorism and National Security Report. Stemming from our analysis of how these commissions make sense of the risk posed by terrorism to national security, we seek to make three contributions. First, we develop sensemaking/sensegiving concepts in public commission reporting by theorizing about hindsight–foresight temporal dynamics. In particular, we extend existing sensemaking scholarship on public commission reporting by directing attention towards the important, yet under-scrutinized role that these inquiries have in sensemaking about the future. Second, we extend the presuppositions underpinning sensemaking theory by operationalizing concepts of antenarrative and employing them in our comparative analysis of the two reports. Third, we contribute to practice by illustrating empirically some of the ‘tactics’ that can be used for challenging hindsight about the known past for the purpose of improving foresight about an unknown future.

Suggested Citation

  • MacKay, R. Bradley & Parks, Ryan W., 2013. "The temporal dynamics of sensemaking: A hindsight–foresight analysis of public commission reporting into the past and future of the “new terrorism”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 364-377.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:2:p:364-377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Hengst-Ehrhart, Yvonne & Schraml, Ulrich, 2020. "Back to the Forest’s future: Guiding principles of German forest stakeholders and their impact on the forestry sector," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Buscema, Massimo & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Massini, Giulia & Della Torre, Francesca & Brogi, Marco & Salonia, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido, 2018. "Unraveling the space grammar of terrorist attacks: A TWC approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 230-254.
    3. MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
    4. Mike Metcalfe & Saras Sastrowardoyo, 2016. "Sense-making Innovative Systems: Prestigious MOOCs," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 437-451, May.
    5. Tapinos, E. & Pyper, N., 2018. "Forward looking analysis: Investigating how individuals ‘do’ foresight and make sense of the future," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 292-302.
    6. Bowman, Gary & Parks, Ryan W., 2024. "Between episodes of strategy: Sociomateriality, sensemaking, and dysfunction in a scenario planning process," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

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