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Diffusion of general-purpose technologies: understanding patterns in the electrification of US Manufacturing 1880--1930

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  • Brent Goldfarb

Abstract

I examine the diffusion of the electric motor between 1880 and 1930. I find that long lag times are determined by the degree of technical difficulty in application. After solutions became available, electrification generally proceeded rapidly. To make this claim, I explore three industries: urban transit, printing and paper making. I identify points at which viable electric solutions to particular problems were found and examine adoption patterns both before and after these events. The explanation contrasts with common demand-side explanations such as costly user-adaptation or information diffusion, and imposes conditions on the application of standard supply side models. The results are particularly important when examining the diffusion of broadly defined technological categories, such as general-purpose technologies. In the history of diffusion of many innovations, one cannot help being struck by two characteristics of the diffusion process: its apparent overall slowness on the one hand, and the wide variations in the rates of acceptance of different inventions, on the other. (Rosenberg, 1972: 191) Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Goldfarb, 2005. "Diffusion of general-purpose technologies: understanding patterns in the electrification of US Manufacturing 1880--1930," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 14(5), pages 745-773, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:14:y:2005:i:5:p:745-773
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    Cited by:

    1. Harald Edquist & Magnus Henrekson, 2006. "Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, pages 1-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Bonnín Roca, Jaime & Vaishnav, Parth & Morgan, Granger M. & Fuchs, Erica & Mendonça, Joana, 2021. "Technology Forgiveness: Why emerging technologies differ in their resilience to institutional instability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Coccia, Mario, 2018. "A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 287-295.
    4. Ayoubi, Charles, 2020. "Machine learning in healthcare: Mirage or miracle for breaking the costs dead-lock?," Thesis Commons tc24d, Center for Open Science.
    5. Clifford Bekar & Kenneth Carlaw & Richard Lipsey, 2018. "General purpose technologies in theory, application and controversy: a review," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1005-1033, December.
    6. Coccia, Mario, 2015. "General sources of general purpose technologies in complex societies: Theory of global leadership-driven innovation, warfare and human development," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-226.
    7. Sergio Petralia, 2020. "GPTs and Growth: Evidence on the Technological Adoption of Electrical & Electronic Technologies in the 1920s," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2033, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2020.
    8. Lin, Boqiang & Zhu, Junpeng, 2020. "Chinese electricity demand and electricity consumption efficiency: Do the structural changes matter?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    9. Sergio Petralia, 2020. "Mapping General Purpose Technologies with Patent Data," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2027, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jul 2020.
    10. Coccia, Mario, 2019. "Why do nations produce science advances and new technology?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Petralia, Sergio, 2020. "Mapping general purpose technologies with patent data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(7).
    12. R. Andergassen & F. Nardini & M. Ricottilli, 2013. "Innovation diffusion, technological convergence and economic growth," Working Papers wp912, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Mario Coccia, 2018. "Socioeconomic driving forces of scientific research," Papers 1806.05028, arXiv.org.
    14. Russell J. Funk & Jason Owen-Smith, 2017. "A Dynamic Network Measure of Technological Change," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 791-817, March.
    15. Jung, Yonghun & Lee, Seong-Hoon, 2014. "Electrification and productivity growth in Korean manufacturing plants," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 333-339.
    16. Andergassen, Rainer & Nardini, Franco & Ricottilli, Massimo, 2017. "Innovation diffusion, general purpose technologies and economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-80.
    17. Mario Coccia, 2017. "General purpose technologies in dynamic systems: visual representation and analyses of complex drivers," IRCrES Working Paper 201705, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY.
    18. Liu, Yong & Du, Jun-liang & Yang, Jin-bi & Qian, Wu-yong & Forrest, Jeffrey Yi-Lin, 2019. "An incentive mechanism for general purpose technologies R&D based on the concept of super-conflict equilibrium: Empirical evidence from nano industrial technology in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 185-197.
    19. Pierre Desrochers & Frederic Sautet, 2008. "Entrepreneurial Policy: The Case of Regional Specialization vs. Spontaneous Industrial Diversity," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 32(5), pages 813-832, September.
    20. Taalbi, Josef, 2017. "Origins and Pathways of Innovation in the Third Industrial Revolution: Sweden, 1950-2013," Lund Papers in Economic History 159, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    21. Dolata, Ulrich, 2008. "The transformative capacity of new technologies. How innovations affect sectoral change: Conceptual considerations," MPIfG Discussion Paper 08/2, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    22. Parraguez, Pedro & Škec, Stanko & e Carmo, Duarte Oliveira & Maier, Anja, 2020. "Quantifying technological change as a combinatorial process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    23. Dolata, Ulrich, 2009. "Technological innovations and sectoral change: Transformative capacity, adaptability, patterns of change: An analytical framework," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1066-1076, July.
    24. Josef Taalbi, 2019. "Origins and pathways of innovation in the third industrial revolution1," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 28(5), pages 1125-1148.

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