IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v118y2017icp270-280.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Science foresight using life-cycle analysis, text mining and clustering: A case study on natural ventilation

Author

Listed:
  • Rezaeian, M.
  • Montazeri, H.
  • Loonen, R.C.G.M.

Abstract

Science foresight comprises a range of methods to analyze past, present and expected research trends, and uses this information to predict the future status of different fields of science and technology. With the ability to identify high-potential development directions, science foresight can be a useful tool to support the management and planning of future research activities. Science foresight analysts can choose from a rather large variety of approaches. There is, however, relatively little information about how the various approaches can be applied in an effective way. This paper describes a three-step methodological framework for science foresight on the basis of published research papers, consisting of (i) life-cycle analysis, (ii) text mining and (iii) knowledge gap identification by means of automated clustering. The three steps are connected using the research methodology of the research papers, as identified by text mining. The potential of combining these three steps in one framework is illustrated by analyzing scientific literature on wind catchers; a natural ventilation concept which has received considerable attention from academia, but with quite low application in practice. The knowledge gaps that are identified show that the automated foresight analysis is indeed able to find uncharted research areas. Results from a sensitivity analysis further show the importance of using full-texts for text mining instead of only title, keywords and abstract. The paper concludes with a reflection on the methodological framework, and gives directions for its intended use in future studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Rezaeian, M. & Montazeri, H. & Loonen, R.C.G.M., 2017. "Science foresight using life-cycle analysis, text mining and clustering: A case study on natural ventilation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 270-280.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:118:y:2017:i:c:p:270-280
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517302470
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernanda Morillo & María Bordons & Isabel Gómez, 2003. "Interdisciplinarity in science: A tentative typology of disciplines and research areas," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 54(13), pages 1237-1249, November.
    2. Ozcan Saritas & Serhat Burmaoglu, 2015. "The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(1), pages 497-508, October.
    3. Ogawa, Takaya & Kajikawa, Yuya, 2015. "Assessing the industrial opportunity of academic research with patent relatedness: A case study on polymer electrolyte fuel cells," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 469-475.
    4. M.J. Cobo & A.G. López-Herrera & E. Herrera-Viedma & F. Herrera, 2012. "SciMAT: A new science mapping analysis software tool," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(8), pages 1609-1630, August.
    5. Arroyabe, Marta F. & Arranz, Nieves & Fdez. de Arroyabe, Juan Carlos, 2015. "R&D partnerships: An exploratory approach to the role of structural variables in joint project performance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 623-634.
    6. Kidwell, Donna K., 2013. "Principal investigators as knowledge brokers: A multiple case study of the creative actions of PIs in entrepreneurial science," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 212-220.
    7. Bahadori, Mehdi N., 1994. "Viability of wind towers in achieving summer comfort in the hot arid regions of the middle east," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 879-892.
    8. Kalantar, Vali, 2009. "Numerical simulation of cooling performance of wind tower (Baud-Geer) in hot and arid region," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 246-254.
    9. Wang, Ming-Yeu & Fang, Shih-Chieh & Chang, Yu-Hsuan, 2015. "Exploring technological opportunities by mining the gaps between science and technology: Microalgal biofuels," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 182-195.
    10. Hughes, Ben Richard & Calautit, John Kaiser & Ghani, Saud Abdul, 2012. "The development of commercial wind towers for natural ventilation: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 606-627.
    11. Can Huang & Ad Notten & Nico Rasters, 2011. "Nanoscience and technology publications and patents: a review of social science studies and search strategies," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 145-172, April.
    12. Ghazinoory, S. & Ameri, F. & Farnoodi, S., 2013. "An application of the text mining approach to select technology centers of excellence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(5), pages 918-931.
    13. Nouanégué, H.F. & Alandji, L.R. & Bilgen, E., 2008. "Numerical study of solar-wind tower systems for ventilation of dwellings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 434-443.
    14. Montazeri, H. & Montazeri, F. & Azizian, R. & Mostafavi, S., 2010. "Two-sided wind catcher performance evaluation using experimental, numerical and analytical modeling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1424-1435.
    15. Leydesdorff, Loet & Cozzens, Susan & Van den Besselaar, Peter, 1994. "Tracking areas of strategic importance using scientometric journal mappings," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 217-229, March.
    16. Saadatian, Omidreza & Haw, Lim Chin & Sopian, K. & Sulaiman, M.Y., 2012. "Review of windcatcher technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1477-1495.
    17. Alan L. Porter & Ismael Rafols, 2009. "Is science becoming more interdisciplinary? Measuring and mapping six research fields over time," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 81(3), pages 719-745, December.
    18. Hsin-Ning Su & Pei-Chun Lee, 2010. "Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence: a first look at journal papers in Technology Foresight," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 85(1), pages 65-79, October.
    19. Soutullo, S. & Sanchez, M.N. & Olmedo, R. & Heras, M.R., 2011. "Theoretical model to estimate the thermal performance of an evaporative wind tower placed in an open space," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3023-3030.
    20. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Martin Ruivenkamp & Arie Rip, 2007. "Tracking the evolution of new and emerging S&T via statement-linkages: Vision assessment in molecular machines," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 70(3), pages 831-858, March.
    21. Dubaric, Ervin & Giannoccaro, Dimitris & Bengtsson, Rune & Ackermann, Thomas, 2011. "Patent data as indicators of wind power technology development," World Patent Information, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 144-149, June.
    22. Yoon, Byungun & Park, Inchae & Coh, Byoung-youl, 2014. "Exploring technological opportunities by linking technology and products: Application of morphology analysis and text mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 287-303.
    23. Bahadori, M.N. & Mazidi, M. & Dehghani, A.R., 2008. "Experimental investigation of new designs of wind towers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 2273-2281.
    24. Peder Olesen Larsen & Markus Ins, 2010. "The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation Index," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 84(3), pages 575-603, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Montazeri, H. & Montazeri, F., 2018. "CFD simulation of cross-ventilation in buildings using rooftop wind-catchers: Impact of outlet openings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 502-520.
    2. Matteo Lascialfari & Marie-Benoît Magrini & Guillaume Cabanac, 2022. "Unpacking research lock-in through a diachronic analysis of topic cluster trajectories in scholarly publications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(11), pages 6165-6189, November.
    3. Afaq Hyder Chohan & Jihad Awad, 2022. "Wind Catchers: An Element of Passive Ventilation in Hot, Arid and Humid Regions, a Comparative Analysis of Their Design and Function," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-23, September.
    4. Na Zhang & Chao Sun & Min Xu & Xuemei Wang & Jia Deng, 2023. "Catching Up of Latecomer Economies in ICT for Sustainable Development: An Analysis Based on Technology Life Cycle Using Patent Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-29, June.
    5. Percia David, Dimitri & Maréchal, Loïc & Lacube, William & Gillard, Sébastien & Tsesmelis, Michael & Maillart, Thomas & Mermoud, Alain, 2023. "Measuring security development in information technologies: A scientometric framework using arXiv e-prints," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Daim, Tugrul & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Forecasting technology trends using text mining of the gaps between science and technology: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 432-449.
    7. Arash Najmaei & Zahra Sadeghinejad, 2023. "Green and sustainable business models: historical roots, growth trajectory, conceptual architecture and an agenda for future research—A bibliometric review of green and sustainable business models," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(2), pages 957-999, February.
    8. Seyed Mahmoud Zanjirchi & Mina Rezaeian Abrishami & Negar Jalilian, 2019. "Four decades of fuzzy sets theory in operations management: application of life-cycle, bibliometrics and content analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(3), pages 1289-1309, June.
    9. Sohrabi, Babak & Khalilijafarabad, Ahmad, 2018. "Systematic method for finding emergence research areas as data quality," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 280-287.
    10. Alsailani, M. & Montazeri, H. & Rezaeiha, A., 2021. "Towards optimal aerodynamic design of wind catchers: Impact of geometrical characteristics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1344-1363.
    11. Wittfoth, Sven & Berger, Theo & Moehrle, Martin G., 2022. "Revisiting the innovation dynamics theory: How effectiveness- and efficiency-oriented process innovations accompany product innovations," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Bordoloi, Tausif & Shapira, Philip & Mativenga, Paul, 2022. "Policy interactions with research trajectories: The case of cyber-physical convergence in manufacturing and industrials," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Haihua & Yang, Dong & Tam, Vivian W.Y. & Tao, Yao & Zhang, Guomin & Setunge, Sujeeva & Shi, Long, 2021. "A critical review of combined natural ventilation techniques in sustainable buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Montazeri, H. & Montazeri, F., 2018. "CFD simulation of cross-ventilation in buildings using rooftop wind-catchers: Impact of outlet openings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 502-520.
    3. Jomehzadeh, Fatemeh & Nejat, Payam & Calautit, John Kaiser & Yusof, Mohd Badruddin Mohd & Zaki, Sheikh Ahmad & Hughes, Ben Richard & Yazid, Muhammad Noor Afiq Witri Muhammad, 2017. "A review on windcatcher for passive cooling and natural ventilation in buildings, Part 1: Indoor air quality and thermal comfort assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 736-756.
    4. Qingsong Ma & Guangwei Qian & Menghui Yu & Lingrui Li & Xindong Wei, 2024. "Performance of Windcatchers in Improving Indoor Air Quality, Thermal Comfort, and Energy Efficiency: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Hughes, Ben Richard & Calautit, John Kaiser & Ghani, Saud Abdul, 2012. "The development of commercial wind towers for natural ventilation: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 606-627.
    6. Choi, Kwang Hun & Kwon, Gyu Hyun, 2023. "Strategies for sensing innovation opportunities in smart grids: In the perspective of interactive relationships between science, technology, and business," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    7. Seyed Mahmoud Zanjirchi & Mina Rezaeian Abrishami & Negar Jalilian, 2019. "Four decades of fuzzy sets theory in operations management: application of life-cycle, bibliometrics and content analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(3), pages 1289-1309, June.
    8. Ahmed, Tariq & Kumar, Prashant & Mottet, Laetitia, 2021. "Natural ventilation in warm climates: The challenges of thermal comfort, heatwave resilience and indoor air quality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    9. Calautit, John Kaiser & Hughes, Ben Richard & O’Connor, Dominic & Shahzad, Sally Salome, 2017. "Numerical and experimental analysis of a multi-directional wind tower integrated with vertically-arranged heat transfer devices (VHTD)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1120-1135.
    10. Kang, Daeho & Strand, Richard K., 2016. "Significance of parameters affecting the performance of a passive down-draft evaporative cooling (PDEC) tower with a spray system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 269-280.
    11. Saadatian, Omidreza & Haw, Lim Chin & Sopian, K. & Sulaiman, M.Y., 2012. "Review of windcatcher technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1477-1495.
    12. Mostafaeipour, Ali & Bardel, Behnoosh & Mohammadi, Kasra & Sedaghat, Ahmad & Dinpashoh, Yagob, 2014. "Economic evaluation for cooling and ventilation of medicine storage warehouses utilizing wind catchers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 12-19.
    13. Dehghani-sanij, A.R. & Soltani, M. & Raahemifar, K., 2015. "A new design of wind tower for passive ventilation in buildings to reduce energy consumption in windy regions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 182-195.
    14. Goudarzi, Hossein & Mostafaeipour, Ali, 2017. "Energy saving evaluation of passive systems for residential buildings in hot and dry regions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 432-446.
    15. Heidari, Sahar & Poshtiri, Amin Haghighi & Gilvaei, Zoleikha Moghtader, 2024. "Enhancing thermal comfort and natural ventilation in residential buildings: A design and assessment of an integrated system with horizontal windcatcher and evaporative cooling channels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    16. Shen, Yung-Chi & Wang, Ming-Yeu & Yang, Ya-Chu, 2020. "Discovering the potential opportunities of scientific advancement and technological innovation: A case study of smart health monitoring technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Moghtader Gilvaei, Zoleikha & Haghighi Poshtiri, Amin & Mirzazade Akbarpoor, Ali, 2022. "A novel passive system for providing natural ventilation and passive cooling: Evaluating thermal comfort and building energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 463-483.
    18. Alsailani, M. & Montazeri, H. & Rezaeiha, A., 2021. "Towards optimal aerodynamic design of wind catchers: Impact of geometrical characteristics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1344-1363.
    19. Afaq Hyder Chohan & Jihad Awad, 2022. "Wind Catchers: An Element of Passive Ventilation in Hot, Arid and Humid Regions, a Comparative Analysis of Their Design and Function," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-23, September.
    20. Zhao, Yi & Liu, Lifan & Zhang, Chengzhi, 2022. "Is coronavirus-related research becoming more interdisciplinary? A perspective of co-occurrence analysis and diversity measure of scientific articles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:118:y:2017:i:c:p:270-280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.