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Do business cycles affect patenting? Evidence from European Patent Office filings

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  • Hingley, Peter
  • Park, Walter G.

Abstract

This paper studies the sensitivity of patent filings to the business cycle using patent filings at the European Patent Office (EPO). Using a dynamic model of patenting and the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter method to separate the cyclical component of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from its trend component, we find that patent filings are strongly pro-cyclical. This supports the view that short term resource constraints affect patenting decisions, even if there are longer term factors that determine innovation. The study also has significance for forecasting patenting behavior, which is important for policy decision-making, institutional operations, and strategic business planning. Forecasts that rely only on trends prove to be less accurate amidst economic booms and recessionary shocks, such as the recent global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Hingley, Peter & Park, Walter G., 2017. "Do business cycles affect patenting? Evidence from European Patent Office filings," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 76-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:116:y:2017:i:c:p:76-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Helen (Huifen) & Sarpong, David & Tang, Xiaoyun & Zhao, Guiqin, 2020. "Foreign patents surge and technology spillovers in China (1985–2009): Evidence from the patent and trade markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Igna, Ioana & Venturini, Francesco, 2023. "The determinants of AI innovation across European firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    3. George H. Ionescu & Elena Jianu & Ioana C. Patrichi & Florin Ghiocel & Lili Țenea & Delia Iancu, 2021. "Assessment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Implementation in Bulgaria and Future Developments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-33, October.
    4. Vicente Salas-Fumás & Javier Ortiz, 2019. "Innovations’ Success and Failure in the Business Cycle," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-22, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation; Patent filings; Dynamic models; Business cycles; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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