IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v115y2017icp143-154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real Time Spatial Delphi: Fast convergence of experts' opinions on the territory

Author

Listed:
  • Di Zio, Simone
  • Castillo Rosas, Juan Daniel
  • Lamelza, Luana

Abstract

Considering the advantages of the online consultation methodologies and the potential of WebGIS technology, we introduce a novel real-time Delphi technique, which exploits the features of two existing methods: Real Time Delphi and Spatial Delphi. This new technique, called Real Time Spatial Delphi, preserves most of the advantages of both methods, minimizes the disadvantages, and develops new potential. A panel of experts, suitably chosen according to the application, answers a geo-questionnaire by placing points on an online interactive map and presenting written arguments. The system automatically calculates and displays a circle representing the convergence of the opinions, which shrinks and moves in real-time. The final result is the delimitation of an area most suitable for a given action or for the occurrence of a future event and is immediately usable for decision support and/or spatial scenario building without any processing. We applied this technique to the zoning of street prostitution in Italy and identified several areas inside five municipalities where the zoning was considered most appropriate by the experts. This new Delphi method represents an innovative way of eliciting experts' opinions regarding a simple and intuitive platform, which is potentially applicable to a very broad spectrum of forecast/decision making issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Zio, Simone & Castillo Rosas, Juan Daniel & Lamelza, Luana, 2017. "Real Time Spatial Delphi: Fast convergence of experts' opinions on the territory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 143-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:115:y:2017:i:c:p:143-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.09.029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516303663
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.09.029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2012. "Consensus measurement in Delphi studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1525-1536.
    2. Di Zio, Simone & Staniscia, Barbara, 2014. "A Spatial version of the Shang method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 207-215.
    3. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li Li & Huihui Rao & Minghao Wang & Weisheng Mao & Changzhe Jin, 2024. "A Variable-Weight Model for Evaluating the Technical Condition of Urban Viaducts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-22, March.
    2. María Camila Sánchez-Prieto & Antonio Luna-González & Alejandro Espinoza-Tenorio & Héctor Abelardo González-Ocampo, 2021. "Planning Ecotourism in Coastal Protected Areas; Projecting Temporal Management Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Roßmann, Bernhard & Canzaniello, Angelo & von der Gracht, Heiko & Hartmann, Evi, 2018. "The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 135-149.
    4. Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Yi & Lian, Xiangpeng & Guo, Ying, 2019. "An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 831-843.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bokrantz, Jon & Skoogh, Anders & Berlin, Cecilia & Stahre, Johan, 2017. "Maintenance in digitalised manufacturing: Delphi-based scenarios for 2030," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 154-169.
    2. Prianto Budi Saptono & Gustofan Mahmud & Intan Pratiwi & Dwi Purwanto & Ismail Khozen & Muhamad Akbar Aditama & Siti Khodijah & Maria Eurelia Wayan & Rina Yuliastuty Asmara & Ferry Jie, 2023. "Development of Climate-Related Disclosure Indicators for Application in Indonesia: A Delphi Method Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Petreski Marjan & Petreski Blagica & Tumanoska Despina & Narazani Edlira & Kazazi Fatush & Ognjanov Galjina & Jankovic Irena & Mustafa Arben & Kochovska Tereza, 2017. "The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process," Südosteuropa. Journal of Politics and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 65(4), pages 679-695, December.
    4. Nibedita Mukherjee & Jean Huge & Farid Dahdouh-Guebas & Nico Koedam, 2014. "Ecosystem service valuations of mangrove ecosystems to inform decision making and future valuation exercises," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/217963, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Alyami, Saleh. H. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2013. "Developing sustainable building assessment scheme for Saudi Arabia: Delphi consultation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 43-54.
    7. Christoph Markmann & Alexander Spickermann & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Alexander Brem, 2021. "Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
    8. Antonelli, Marta & Basile, Linda & Gagliardi, Francesca & Isernia, Pierangelo, 2022. "The future of the Mediterranean agri-food systems: Trends and perspectives from a Delphi survey," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Johannes I. F. Henning & Henry Jordaan, 2016. "Determinants of Financial Sustainability for Farm Credit Applications—A Delphi Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Kimberly Pugel & Amy Javernick-Will & Matthew Koschmann & Shawn Peabody & Karl Linden, 2020. "Adapting Collaborative Approaches for Service Provision to Low-Income Countries: Expert Panel Results," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Volkmar, Gioia & Fischer, Peter M. & Reinecke, Sven, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: Exploring drivers, barriers, and future developments in marketing management," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 599-614.
    12. Kawamoto, Carlos Tadao & Wright, James Terence Coulter & Spers, Renata Giovinazzo & de Carvalho, Daniel Estima, 2019. "Can we make use of perception of questions' easiness in Delphi-like studies? Some results from an experiment with an alternative feedback," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 296-305.
    13. Meijering, Jurian Vincent & Tobi, Hilde, 2018. "The effects of feeding back experts’ own initial ratings in Delphi studies: A randomized trial," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 216-224.
    14. Aldossary, Naief A. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2015. "Consensus-based low carbon domestic design framework for sustainable homes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-432.
    15. Vineet Kaushik & Shobha Tewari, 2023. "Modeling Opportunity Indicators Fostering Social Entrepreneurship: A Hybrid Delphi and Best-Worst Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 667-698, August.
    16. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    17. Fritschy, Carolin & Spinler, Stefan, 2019. "The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    18. Förster, Bernadette, 2015. "Technology foresight for sustainable production in the German automotive supplier industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 237-248.
    19. Petreski Marjan & Petreski Blagica & Tumanoska Despina & Narazani Edlira & Kazazi Fatush & Ognjanov Galjina & Jankovic Irena & Mustafa Arben & Kochovska Tereza, 2017. "The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process," Comparative Southeast European Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 65(4), pages 679-695, December.
    20. Soumi Muhuri & Sanghamitra Basu, 2018. "Developing Residential Social Cohesion Index for High-Rise Group Housing Complexes in India," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 923-947, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:115:y:2017:i:c:p:143-154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.