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Stagnation and unnaturally low interest rates: a simple critique of the amended New Consensus and the Sraffian supermultiplier alternative

Author

Listed:
  • Franklin Serrano

    (Professor Associado, Instituto de Economia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE–UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Ricardo Summa

    (Professor Associado, Instituto de Economia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IE–UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Vivian Garrido Moreira

    (Post-Doctoral Researcher, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (PPGE–UFSC), Florianópolis, Brazil)

Abstract

This paper argues that the amended versions (financial wedge and secular stagnation) of the simple pragmatic New Consensus model are as open to theoretical criticism as the original one was. The authors show that: (i) the real natural rate of interest is unlikely to be negative, (ii) it (inconsistently) depends on the Neoclassical investment function drawn at a position of full employment in a model in which the economy is demand-constrained, and (iii) both investment and full employment saving are induced by the trend of demand in the longer run and this challenges the usefulness of the notion of a natural or neutral rate of interest, which (iv) are also subject to the Sraffian capital critique. This is then contrasted with an alternative simple Sraffian supermultiplier model in which the interest rate and the financial wedge are distributive instead of allocative variables, and there is no natural rate of interest since in the longer run there is no trade-off between consumption and investment and also no full employment of labor. As the capital stock adjusts to demand, potential (capacity) saving will be determined by investment, and both investment and capacity saving increase when consumption increases. Finally, we briefly illustrate how this alternative model could begin to make sense of the recent relevant stylized facts.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa & Vivian Garrido Moreira, 2020. "Stagnation and unnaturally low interest rates: a simple critique of the amended New Consensus and the Sraffian supermultiplier alternative," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 365-384, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p365-384
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Summa, Ricardo de Figueiredo, 2022. "Alternative uses of functional finance: Lerner, MMT and the Sraffiansh," IPE Working Papers 175/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Manuel David Cruz & Daniele Tavani, 2022. "Secular Stagnation: A Classical-Marxian View," Working Papers PKWP2229, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    4. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2024. "Testing for secular stagnation in investment rates using a Bayesian multilevel model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-364.
    5. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    6. Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2024. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948–2019)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    7. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    8. Peter Flaschel & Sigrid Luchtenberg & Hagen Kramer & Christian Proano & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "Contemporary Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Tragedy in Three Acts," Working Papers 2105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    9. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stagnation; Sraffian supermultiplier; New Consensus model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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