IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/socmed/v268y2021ics0277953620306924.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures related to COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Banerjee, Ritwik
  • Bhattacharya, Joydeep
  • Majumdar, Priyama

Abstract

We define prediction bias as the systematic error arising from an incorrect prediction of the number of positive COVID cases x-weeks hence when presented with y-weeks of prior, actual data on the same. Our objective is to investigate the importance of an exponential-growth prediction bias (EGPB) in understanding why the COVID-19 outbreak has exploded. To that end, our goal is to document EGPB in the comprehension of disease data, study how it evolves as the epidemic progresses, and connect it with compliance of personal safety guidelines such as the use of face coverings and social distancing. We also investigate whether a behavioral nudge, cost less to implement, can significantly reduce EGPB.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Ritwik & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Majumdar, Priyama, 2021. "Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures related to COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:268:y:2021:i:c:s0277953620306924
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953620306924
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113473?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thiemo Fetzer & Lukas Hensel & Johannes Hermle & Christopher Roth, 2021. "Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 968–978-9, December.
    2. Thomas, Richard, 1996. "Modelling space-time HIV/AIDS dynamics: Applications to disease control," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 353-366, August.
    3. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Yu, Xiumei, 2021. "A rational-choice model of Covid-19 transmission with endogenous quarantining and two-sided prevention," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Matthew Levy & Joshua Tasoff, 2016. "Exponential-Growth Bias And Lifecycle Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 545-583, June.
    5. Lyons, Benjamin A. & Merola, Vittorio & Reifler, Jason, 2020. "Shifting medical guidelines: Compliance and spillover effects for revised antibiotic recommendations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    6. Lunn, Peter D. & Timmons, Shane & Belton, Cameron A. & Barjaková, Martina & Julienne, Hannah & Lavin, Ciarán, 2020. "Motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: An online experiment," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    7. Matthew Levy & Joshua Tasoff, 2016. "Exponential-Growth Bias and Lifecycle Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 545-583.
    8. Chen, Daniel L. & Schonger, Martin & Wickens, Chris, 2016. "oTree—An open-source platform for laboratory, online, and field experiments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 88-97.
    9. Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68881, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Donovan, Jenny L. & Blake, David R., 1992. "Patient non-compliance: Deviance or reasoned decision-making?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 507-513, March.
    11. Henning Cordes & Bryan Foltice & Thomas Langer, 2019. "Misperception of Exponential Growth: Are People Aware of Their Errors?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 261-280, December.
    12. Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Callaghan, Timothy & Motta, Matthew & Sylvester, Steven & Lunz Trujillo, Kristin & Blackburn, Christine Crudo, 2019. "Parent psychology and the decision to delay childhood vaccination," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Kawachi, Ichiro & Subramanian, S.V., 2018. "Social epidemiology for the 21st century," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 240-245.
    15. Levy, Matthew & Tasoff, Joshua, 2016. "Exponential-growth bias and lifecycle consumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102087, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Victor Stango & Jonathan Zinman, 2009. "Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2807-2849, December.
    17. Motta, Matthew & Callaghan, Timothy & Sylvester, Steven, 2018. "Knowing less but presuming more: Dunning-Kruger effects and the endorsement of anti-vaccine policy attitudes," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 274-281.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Jäckle & Thomas Waldvogel, 2022. "Attitudes toward Coronavirus Protection Measures among German School Students: The Effects of Education and Knowledge about the Pandemic," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Ritwik Banerjee & Priyama Majumdar, 2023. "Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID‐19 spread and economic expectation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 653-689, April.
    3. Suter, Manuel & Strahm, Noel & Bundeli, Till & Kaessner, Kaja & Cologna, Viktoria & Berger, Sebastian, 2024. "Framing effects in expert assessments of optimal GDP development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Banerjee, Ritwik & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Majumdar, Priyama, 2020. "Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13257, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Ritwik Banerjee & Priyama Majumdar, 2023. "Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID‐19 spread and economic expectation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 653-689, April.
    3. McGowan, Féidhlim & Lunn, Pete & Robertson, Deirdre, 2019. "Underestimation of money growth and pensions: Experimental investigations," Papers WP611, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Königsheim, C. & Lukas, M. & Nöth, M., 2018. "Individual preferences and the exponential growth bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 352-369.
    5. Preuss, Marcel & Reyes, Germán & Somerville, Jason & Wu, Joy, 2022. "Inequality of Opportunity and Income Redistribution," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264138, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Abel, Martin & Byker, Tanya & Carpenter, Jeffrey, 2021. "Socially optimal mistakes? debiasing COVID-19 mortality risk perceptions and prosocial behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 456-480.
    8. Asen Ivanov, 2021. "Optimal pension plan default policies when employees are biased," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(3), pages 583-596, June.
    9. Goda, Gopi Shah & Levy, Matthew R. & Flaherty Manchester, Colleen & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua & Xiao, Jiusi, 2023. "Are retirement planning tools substitutes or complements to financial capability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 561-573.
    10. Olckers, Matthew, 2021. "On track for retirement?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 76-88.
    11. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 31, pages 1-1.
    12. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2018. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding Under Random Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1693-1706, April.
    13. Goda, Gopi Shah & Levy, Matthew R. & Manchester, Colleen Flaherty & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua, 2020. "Who is a passive saver under opt-in and auto-enrollment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 301-321.
    14. Marcel Preuss & Germ'an Reyes & Jason Somerville & Joy Wu, 2022. "Inequality of Opportunity and Income Redistribution," Papers 2209.00534, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    15. David Blake & John Pickles, 2021. "Mental Time Travel and Retirement Savings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68881, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Foltice, Bryan & Langer, Thomas, 2018. "Exponential growth bias matters: Evidence and implications for financial decision making of college students in the U.S.A," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 56-63.
    18. Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
    19. Meissner, Thomas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2017. "Learning Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 273-288.
    20. Sandro Ambuehl & B. Douglas Bernheim & Annamaria Lusardi, 2022. "Evaluating Deliberative Competence: A Simple Method with an Application to Financial Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3584-3626, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:268:y:2021:i:c:s0277953620306924. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/315/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.