IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/jeurec/v14y2016i3p545-583..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exponential-Growth Bias and Lifecycle Consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Levy
  • Joshua Tasoff

Abstract

Exponential-growth bias (EGB) is the tendency for individuals to partially neglect compounding of exponential growth. We develop a model wherein biased agents misperceive the intertemporal budget constraint, and derive conditions for overconsumption and dynamic inconsistency. We construct an incentivized measure of EGB in a US-representative population and find substantial bias, with approximately one third of subjects estimated as the fully biased type. The magnitude of the bias is negatively associated with asset accumulation, and does not respond to a simple graphical intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Levy & Joshua Tasoff, 2016. "Exponential-Growth Bias and Lifecycle Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 545-583.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:3:p:545-583.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jeea.12149
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gopi Shah Goda & Colleen Flaherty Manchester & Aaron Sojourner, 2012. "What Will My Account Really Be Worth? An Experiment on Exponential Growth Bias and Retirement Saving," NBER Working Papers 17927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2018. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding Under Random Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1693-1706, April.
    3. Xavier Gabaix, 2014. "A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1661-1710.
    4. Goda, Gopi Shah & Manchester, Colleen Flaherty & Sojourner, Aaron J., 2014. "What will my account really be worth? Experimental evidence on how retirement income projections affect saving," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 80-92.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2018. "Shrouded attributes, consumer myopia and information suppression in competitive markets," Chapters, in: Victor J. Tremblay & Elizabeth Schroeder & Carol Horton Tremblay (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Industrial Organization, chapter 3, pages 40-74, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Victor Stango & Jonathan Zinman, 2011. "Fuzzy Math, Disclosure Regulation, and Market Outcomes: Evidence from Truth-in-Lending Reform," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 506-534.
    8. B. Douglas Bernheim & Jonathan Skinner & Steven Weinberg, 2001. "What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth among U.S. Households?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 832-857, September.
    9. Benzion Uri & Granot Alon & Yagil Joseph, 1992. "The valuation of the exponential function and implications for derived interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 299-303, March.
    10. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    11. Victor Stango & Jonathan Zinman, 2009. "Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2807-2849, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Blake & John Pickles, 2021. "Mental Time Travel and Retirement Savings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Goda, Gopi Shah & Levy, Matthew R. & Manchester, Colleen Flaherty & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua, 2020. "Who is a passive saver under opt-in and auto-enrollment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 301-321.
    3. Asen Ivanov, 2021. "Optimal pension plan default policies when employees are biased," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(3), pages 583-596, June.
    4. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2021. "Long-run expectations of households," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 31, pages 1-1.
    5. Banerjee, Ritwik & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Majumdar, Priyama, 2021. "Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures related to COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    6. Goda, Gopi Shah & Levy, Matthew R. & Flaherty Manchester, Colleen & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua & Xiao, Jiusi, 2023. "Are retirement planning tools substitutes or complements to financial capability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 561-573.
    7. Meissner, Thomas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2017. "Learning Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 273-288.
    8. Peter Haan & Chen Sun & Uwe Sunde & Georg Weizsäcker, 2022. "Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2027, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Olckers, Matthew, 2021. "On track for retirement?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 76-88.
    10. Sandro Ambuehl & B. Douglas Bernheim & Annamaria Lusardi, 2022. "Evaluating Deliberative Competence: A Simple Method with an Application to Financial Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3584-3626, November.
    11. Preuss, Marcel & Reyes, Germán & Somerville, Jason & Wu, Joy, 2022. "Inequality of Opportunity and Income Redistribution," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264138, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    13. Hagen, Johannes & Malisa, Amedeus, 2022. "Financial fraud and individual investment behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 593-626.
    14. Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68881, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2018. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding Under Random Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1693-1706, April.
    16. McGowan, Féidhlim & Lunn, Pete & Robertson, Deirdre, 2019. "Underestimation of money growth and pensions: Experimental investigations," Papers WP611, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Cheng Yuan & Xiaoxiao Wang & Li Lin, 2023. "Why Do Financially Illiterate Students Perceive Lower Education Returns? Evidence From a Survey in Rural China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    18. Banerjee, Ritwik & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Majumdar, Priyama, 2020. "Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13257, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Foltice, Bryan & Langer, Thomas, 2018. "Exponential growth bias matters: Evidence and implications for financial decision making of college students in the U.S.A," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 56-63.
    20. Abel, Martin & Byker, Tanya & Carpenter, Jeffrey, 2021. "Socially optimal mistakes? debiasing COVID-19 mortality risk perceptions and prosocial behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 456-480.
    21. Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
    22. John Duffy, 2022. "Why macroeconomics needs experimental evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 5-29, January.
    23. Ritwik Banerjee & Priyama Majumdar, 2023. "Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID‐19 spread and economic expectation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 653-689, April.
    24. Bohr, Clement E. & Holt, Charles A. & Schubert, Alexandra V., 2019. "Assisted savings for retirement: An experimental analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 42-54.
    25. Marcel Preuss & Germ'an Reyes & Jason Somerville & Joy Wu, 2022. "Inequality of Opportunity and Income Redistribution," Papers 2209.00534, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levy, Matthew & Tasoff, Joshua, 2016. "Exponential-growth bias and lifecycle consumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102087, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Matthew R Levy & Joshua Tasoff, 2016. "Misunderestimation: exponential-growth bias and time-varying returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 29-34.
    3. Gopi Shah Goda & Matthew Levy & Colleen Flaherty Manchester & Aaron Sojourner & Joshua Tasoff, 2019. "Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures Of Exponential‐Growth Bias And Present Bias," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(3), pages 1636-1658, July.
    4. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
    5. Gopi Shah Goda & Matthew R. Levy & Colleen Flaherty Manchester & Aaron Sojourner & Joshua Tasoff, 2015. "The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings," NBER Working Papers 21482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68881, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Sandro Ambuehl & B. Douglas Bernheim & Annamaria Lusardi, 2022. "Evaluating Deliberative Competence: A Simple Method with an Application to Financial Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3584-3626, November.
    9. Duffy, John & Li, Yue, 2019. "Lifecycle consumption under different income profiles: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 74-94.
    10. Klos, Alexander & Rottke, Simon, 2013. "Saving and Consumption When Children Move Out," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79786, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Goda, Gopi Shah & Levy, Matthew R. & Flaherty Manchester, Colleen & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua & Xiao, Jiusi, 2023. "Are retirement planning tools substitutes or complements to financial capability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 561-573.
    12. Lukas, Moritz & Nöth, Markus, 2022. "Voluntary minimum repayments and borrower heterogeneity: Evidence from revolving consumer credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Muñoz, Sònia, 2004. "Real effects of regional house prices: dynamic panel estimation with heterogeneity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24704, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. McGowan, Féidhlim & Lunn, Pete & Robertson, Deirdre, 2019. "Underestimation of money growth and pensions: Experimental investigations," Papers WP611, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Kiichi Tokuoka & Matthew N. White, 2020. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 40-76, July.
    16. Wang-Ly, Nathan & Newell, Ben R., 2022. "Allowing early access to retirement savings: Lessons from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 716-733.
    17. Francisco Alvarez‐Cuadrado & Mayssun El‐Attar Vilalta, 2018. "Income Inequality and Saving," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1029-1061, December.
    18. Elisabeth Sinnewe & Gavin Nicholson, 2023. "Healthy financial habits in young adults: An exploratory study of the relationship between subjective financial literacy, engagement with finances, and financial decision‐making," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 564-592, January.
    19. Königsheim, C. & Lukas, M. & Nöth, M., 2018. "Individual preferences and the exponential growth bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 352-369.
    20. Miriam Beblo & Sven Schreiber, 2022. "Leisure and housing consumption after retirement: new evidence on the life-cycle hypothesis," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 305-330, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:3:p:545-583.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/jeea .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.