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A theoretical interpretation of the oil prices impact on economic growth in contemporary Russia

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  • Idrisov, Georgy
  • Kazakova, Maria
  • Polbin, Andrey

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of global oil prices on Russia's economic growth and its growth rate in terms of output. It also reviews the mechanics of the long-term and short-term impacts on output resulting from changes in oil prices. The authors argue that the effect of oil prices on output has decreased dramatically under current economic conditions ever since the period of recovery growth in the early 2000s. The main conclusion of the paper is that, on the basis of classical models, a constant increase in oil prices cannot influence the long-term economic growth rate and only predetermines short-term transitional trends from one long-term equilibrium to another.

Suggested Citation

  • Idrisov, Georgy & Kazakova, Maria & Polbin, Andrey, 2015. "A theoretical interpretation of the oil prices impact on economic growth in contemporary Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 257-272.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:257-272
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; economic growth; small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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