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Bias in the post-IPO earnings forecasts of affiliated analysts: Evidence from a Chinese natural experiment

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  • Huyghebaert, Nancy
  • Xu, Weidong

Abstract

Investment banks and issuers of Chinese domestic IPOs became fully responsible for IPO offer prices only on June 10, 2009. Before this regulatory reform, the optimistic bias in post-IPO earnings forecasts is highly comparable across affiliated and unaffiliated analysts. Afterward, the forecasts of affiliated analysts are 33 percentage points more positively distorted on average. In the first 90 days after an IPO, this relative forecast bias even increases to 63 percentage points and enlarges further when the issuer׳s stock price drops in the aftermarket. Affiliated analysts distort especially their forecasts for fiscal years further away from the forecast release date.

Suggested Citation

  • Huyghebaert, Nancy & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Bias in the post-IPO earnings forecasts of affiliated analysts: Evidence from a Chinese natural experiment," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 486-505.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:61:y:2016:i:2:p:486-505
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2015.10.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Han & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wu, Yuliang & Xu, Bin, 2023. "Can star analysts make superior coverage decisions in poor information environment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Fosu, Samuel & Ntim, Collins G. & Coffie, William & Murinde, Victor, 2017. "Bank opacity and risk-taking: Evidence from analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 81-95.
    3. Dong, Rui & Fisman, Raymond & Wang, Yongxiang & Xu, Nianhang, 2021. "Air pollution, affect, and forecasting bias: Evidence from Chinese financial analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 971-984.
    4. K. Hung Chan & Ray R. Wang & Ruixin Wang, 2021. "The Macbeth Factor: The Dark Side of Achievement‐driving Analysts," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(2), pages 325-361, June.
    5. Gao, Shenghao & Meng, Qingbin & Chan, Jesse Y. & Chan, Kam C., 2018. "Cognitive reference points, institutional investors' bid prices, and IPO pricing: Evidence from IPO auctions in China," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 124-140.
    6. Wang, Ying & Liu, Zisen, 2024. "Under the dome: Air pollution and analyst forecast optimism," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    7. Fosu, Samuel & Danso, Albert & Agyei-Boapeah, Henry & Ntim, Collins G. & Murinde, Victor, 2018. "How does banking market power affect bank opacity? Evidence from analysts' forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 38-52.
    8. Albert Danso & Samuel Fosu & Samuel Owusu‐Agyei & Collins G. Ntim & Emmanuel Adegbite, 2021. "Capital structure revisited. Do crisis and competition matter in a Keiretsu corporate structure?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5073-5092, October.
    9. Fuxiu Jiang & Kenneth A Kim, 2020. "Corporate Governance in China: A Survey [The role of boards of directors in corporate governance: a conceptual framework and survey]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 733-772.
    10. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2022. "Are Expectations Misled by Chance? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Financial Analysts," Working Papers 396, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    11. Huang, Lixin & Li, Wei & Wang, Hong & Wu, Liansheng, 2022. "Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 643-659.
    12. Liu, Yu & Yang, Lingxuan & Xiong, Lu, 2023. "Performance commitments and the properties of analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from Chinese reverse merger firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Gao, Shenghao & Brockman, Paul & Meng, Qingbin & Yan, Xuemin, 2020. "Differences of opinion, institutional bids, and IPO underpricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "Another game in town: Spillover effects of IPOs in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Kyoungwon Mo & Kyung Yun (Kailey) Lee, 2019. "Analyst Following, Group Affiliation, and Labor Investment Efficiency: Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, June.
    16. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian & Liu, Shasha, 2022. "Does the mandatory disclosure of audit information affect analysts' information acquisition?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Jiang, Fuxiu & Cai, Xinni & Nofsinger, John R. & Zheng, Xiaojia, 2020. "Can reputation concern restrain bad news hoarding in family firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. Mo, Kyoungwon & Lee, Kyung Yun, 2021. "Affiliated Mutual Fund Investments and Discretionary Accruals: Evidence from Korea," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    20. Salim Chahine & Gonul Colak & Iftekhar Hasan & Mohamad Mazboudi, 2020. "Investor relations and IPO performance," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 474-512, June.

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