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The impact of ECB’s Quantitative Easing on cryptocurrency markets during times of crisis

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  • Aloui, Donia
  • Zouaoui, Riadh
  • Rachdi, Houssem
  • Guesmi, Khaled
  • Yarovaya, Larisa

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate non-linear linkages between Bitcoin and the unconventional monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB). In particular, we examine whether a low-interest rate environment resulting from QE indirectly encourages investors to move towards Bitcoin. Using a Bayesian VAR model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility (TVP-BVAR-SV model), we compare Bitcoin’s responses to the shadow rate shocks during the pre-and post-COVID-19 periods. Moreover, despite the high uncertainty and the low-interest rate environment, Bitcoin's response during the COVID-19 period reveals a steeper drop compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. That said, investors did not resort to Bitcoin for safety and higher returns. Our findings can be attributed to the unprecedented nature of the crisis, the investor reluctance and pessimism, and the changing behavior of Bitcoin, which is no longer perceived as a safe haven.

Suggested Citation

  • Aloui, Donia & Zouaoui, Riadh & Rachdi, Houssem & Guesmi, Khaled & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2024. "The impact of ECB’s Quantitative Easing on cryptocurrency markets during times of crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:69:y:2024:i:c:s027553192300329x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102203
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; ECB; Quantitative Easing; Shadow rate; Bitcoin; Investor sentiment; TVP-BVAR-SV model; Stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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