IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2008-221.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodities and the Market Price of Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Shaun K. Roache

Abstract

Commodities are back following a stellar run of price performance, attracting financial investor attention. What are the fundamental reasons to hold commodities? One reason is the exposure offered to underlying risk factors. In this paper, I assess the macro risk exposure offered by commodity futures and test whether these risks are priced, using Merton's (1973) intertemporal capital asset pricing model for a sample of commodity prices covering the period January 1973 - February 2008. I find that commodity futures offer a hedge against lower interest rates and that investors are willing to accept lower expected returns for this position. Although some commodities are also a hedge against U.S. dollar depreciation, this risk is not priced.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2008. "Commodities and the Market Price of Risk," IMF Working Papers 2008/221, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22317
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mr. Matthew D. Merritt & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Currency Risk Premia in Global Stock Markets," IMF Working Papers 2006/194, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Kolos, Sergey P. & Ronn, Ehud I., 2008. "Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 621-641, March.
    6. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    7. Shanken, Jay & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Estimating and testing beta pricing models: Alternative methods and their performance in simulations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 40-86, April.
    8. Graciela Kaminsky & Manmohan S. Kumar, 1990. "Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 670-699, September.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    10. Jagannathan, Ravi, 1985. "An Investigation of Commodity Futures Prices Using the Consumption-based Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 175-191, March.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    12. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1997. "International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time-Varying Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1881-1912, December.
    13. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    14. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    15. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    16. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    17. Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    19. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1877-1900 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
    2. Roache, Shaun K. & Rossi, Marco, 2010. "The effects of economic news on commodity prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 377-385, August.
    3. Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Mr. Marco Rossi, 2009. "The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?," IMF Working Papers 2009/140, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Keith Elliott & Gianluca Marcato, 2011. "Alternative investments: return driving actors," ERES eres2011_151, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Emanuele De Meo, 2013. "Are Commodity Prices Driven by Fundamentals?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 42(1), pages 19-46, February.
    6. Cochran, Steven J. & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2012. "Volatility persistence in metal returns: A FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 287-305.
    7. Mukherjee, Dr. Kedar nath, 2011. "Commodity investments: opportunities for Indian institutional investors," MPRA Paper 33510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Laszlo Kozar & Laszlo Vasa & Gyorgy Ivan Neszmelyi, 2021. "The Opportunities and Challenges of Combined Use of Futures Commodity Exchange and Public Warehouse in the Crop Sector of Vietnam," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 1260-1286.
    9. Dale Roberts & Laura Ryan, 2015. "Evidence of speculation in world oil prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(4), pages 630-651, November.
    10. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2009. "Oil and portfolio risk diversification," MPRA Paper 28293, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
    11. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Mo, Di & Gupta, Rakesh & Li, Bin & Singh, Tarlok, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of commodity futures volatility: Evidence from Chinese and Indian markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 543-560.
    13. Pagano Patrizio & Pisani Massimiliano, 2009. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, June.
    14. Nicholas Apergis & Sofia Eleftheriou & Dimitrios Voliotis, 2017. "Asymmetric Spillover Effects between Agricultural Commodity Prices and Biofuel Energy Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 166-177.
    15. Bianconi, Marcelo & Yoshino, Joe A., 2014. "Risk factors and value at risk in publicly traded companies of the nonrenewable energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 19-32.
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6800 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2010. "What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2010/129, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Shang, Hua & Yuan, Ping & Huang, Lin, 2016. "Macroeconomic factors and the cross-section of commodity futures returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 316-332.
    19. Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
    20. Karlygash Kurlbayeva & Samuel Malone, 2012. "The determinants of extreme commodity prices," OxCarre Working Papers 096, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    21. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2009. "Is Oil A Financial Asset? An Empirical Investigation Spanning the Last Fifteen Years," Working Papers - Economics wp2009_12.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    22. Lübbers, Johannes & Posch, Peter N., 2016. "Commodities' common factor: An empirical assessment of the markets' drivers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 28-40.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    3. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
    4. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Time Varying Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Listed Pakistani Firms," MPRA Paper 37561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Shanken, Jay & Weinstein, Mark I., 2006. "Economic forces and the stock market revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 129-144, March.
    7. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    8. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    9. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Fundamental determinants of national equity market returns: A perspective on conditional asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1625-1665, December.
    10. Dahlquist, Magnus & Sallstrom, Torbjorn, 2002. "An Evaluation of International Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Erdinc Altay, 2003. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Asset Returns: A Comparative Analysis of the German and the Turkish Stock Markets in an APT Framework," Finance 0307006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2015. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-27, May.
    13. Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- vs general-equilibrium models of the international capital market," Working Papers hal-00610766, HAL.
    14. Evangelos Karanikas & George Leledakis & Elias Tzavalis, 2006. "Structural Changes in Expected Stock Returns Relationships: Evidence from ASE," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1610-1628, November.
    15. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    16. Durand, Robert B. & Lan, Yihui & Ng, Andrew, 2011. "Conditional beta: Evidence from Asian emerging markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 130-153.
    17. Ericsson, Johan & Karlsson, Sune, 2003. "Choosing Factors in a Multifactor Asset Pricing Model: A Bayesian Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 524, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2004.
    18. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 1999. "The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 483-515, September.
    19. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    20. Thomas Bollinger & Axel Kind, 2015. "Risk Premiums in the Cross-Section of Commodity Convenience Yields," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-17, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.