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Does inflation targeting always matter for the ERPT? A robust approach

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  • López-Villavicencio, Antonia
  • Pourroy, Marc

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of different forms of inflation targeting (IT) in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). To this end, we first estimate the ERPT for a large sample of countries using state-space models. We then consider the adoption of an inflation targeting framework by a country as a treatment to find suitable counterfactuals to the actual targeters. By controlling for self-selection bias and endogeneity of the monetary policy regime, we confirm that the ERPT tends to be lower for countries adopting explicit IT. However, we uncover that older regimes, adopting a range or point with tolerance band and keeping inflation close to the target, outperform other IT regimes. We also show that IT is effective even with a relatively high inflation target or low central bank independence.

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  • López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Does inflation targeting always matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:60:y:2019:i:c:p:360-377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.04.004
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Testing the asymmetric effects of exchange rate pass‐through in BRICS countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 188-233, January.
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    5. Arshid Hussain PEER & Mirza Allim BAIG, 2023. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through in India: Lessons from international experience," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(634), S), pages 239-254, Spring.
    6. Bambe, Bao-We-Wal, 2023. "Inflation targeting and private domestic investment in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Boubaker, Sabri, 2023. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Adina Ionela Străchinaru & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2019. "Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    9. Bao We Wal Bambe & Jean-Louis Combes & Kabinet Kaba & Alexandru Minea, 2024. "Inflation targeting and firm performance in developing countries," Post-Print hal-04734823, HAL.
    10. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Usman, Ojonugwa & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    11. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2022/0237, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; Inflation targeting; State-space model; Propensity score matching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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