Aging, low fertility and household debt risk

Population aging is a typical feature of the change of population age structure in many developed countries at present, and the resulting family economic burden is an important factor causing debt risk. This paper uses the sample data of 33 economies of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) from 1992 to 2021 to study the impact of population age structure on household debt risk and its mechanism. The study found that: First, The rising proportion of the elderly population and the elderly dependency ratio have significantly increased the household debt levels, Population aging can increase the risk of household debt by affecting the pension level, total factor productivity and worker share; second, After the economy has suffered from economic fluctuations, The impact of population aging on household debt risk has changed from nonsignificant to positively significant, Show that the economic crisis has reduced household income levels, It weakens the family's solvency; third, With the relatively sound social security system in developed economies, Higher levels of national income, As a result, the aging population has a weak effect on household debt risk. Fourth, human capital investment can alleviate the negative impact of population aging to a certain extent. The reason is that the improvement of education level will improve the living conditions of families and enhance residents' awareness of independent old-age security. The conclusions of this paper have important policy implications for deeply exploring the social consequences of aging economy and reasonably YESling the spillover of household debt risk.