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Uncertain Pension Income and Household Saving

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  • Peter van Santen

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between household saving and pensions, and estimates both the displacement effect of pensions on private saving and the precautionary saving effect due to uncertainty in pension income. I estimate the savings equation implied by a simple life‐cycle model featuring income uncertainty using survey data for Dutch households, with subjective expectations on pension benefits and uncertainty. Exploiting exogenous variation due to pension fund performance, I find that households save significantly more due to uncertainty in pension income. Not controlling for uncertainty biases the estimated displacement effect of pensions on private savings towards zero.

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  • Peter van Santen, 2019. "Uncertain Pension Income and Household Saving," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(4), pages 908-929, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:65:y:2019:i:4:p:908-929
    DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12383
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mastrogiacomo, Mauro & Dillingh, Rik & Li, Yue, 2023. "The displacement effect of compulsory pension savings on private savings. Evidence from the Netherlands, using pension funds supervisory data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    2. Tullio Jappelli & Immacolata Marino & Mario Padula, 2021. "Social Security Uncertainty and Demand for Retirement Saving," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(4), pages 810-834, December.
    3. Magnani, Marco, 2024. "An analysis of precautionary behavior in retirement decision making with an application to pension system reform," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 99-113.
    4. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Yue Li & Rik Dillingh, 2022. "The displacement effect of compulsory pension savings on private savings. Evidence from the Netherlands, using pension funds supervisory data," Working Papers 747, DNB.
    5. Francesco Caloia & Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Irene Simonetti, 2023. "Shocks to Occupational Pensions and Household Savings," Working Papers 775, DNB.
    6. Laura D. Quinby & Geoffrey Sanzenbacher, 2021. "Do Public Sector Workers Increase Their Outside Savings in Response to Pension Cuts?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1023, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Wang, Dong & Zhang, Qiqi & Yang, Jingya, 2022. "Higher education expansion and national savings level: Evidence from macro data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 92-103.
    8. Wei Yang & Peng Yang & Huaiwang Shi & Weizeng Sun, 2022. "Mobile Payment Application and Rural Household Consumption—Evidence from China Household Finance Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.

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