IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v93y2024ipap1138-1153.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal investment and exit decision of venture capitals with multiple heterogeneous Beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zhuming
  • Luo, Xue

Abstract

Generally, traders hold different beliefs about the same project in venture capital activities. We propose a two-stage decision model with multiple heterogeneous beliefs using real options game theory. Based on this model, we analyse the optimal timing and amount of invested capital for venture capital in stage 1 (investing) and stage 2 (exiting). The results show that different beliefs decrease the optimal amount of invested capital but have little influence on the optimal investment timing, which accounts for the “agree to disagree” phenomenon. This negative effect can be offset by the learning process but can also be exacerbated by the differences in required returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhuming & Luo, Xue, 2024. "Optimal investment and exit decision of venture capitals with multiple heterogeneous Beliefs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1138-1153.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:93:y:2024:i:pa:p:1138-1153
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.04.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024002624
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2024.04.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abeer Alomani & Rui Baptista & Suma S. Athreye, 2022. "The interplay between human, social and cognitive resources of nascent entrepreneurs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1301-1326, December.
    2. Christian Schumacher & Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2020. "Biased interpretation of performance feedback: The role of CEO overconfidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 1139-1165, June.
    3. Chen, Zhuming & Chen, Can & Lin, Tao & Chen, Xiaoguo, 2021. "The dynamic investment and exit decisions of venture capitals," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2014. "On the investment–uncertainty relationship: A game theoretic real option approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 25-35.
    5. Jeaneth Johansson & Malin Malmström & Joakim Wincent & Vinit Parida, 2021. "How individual cognitions overshadow regulations and group norms: a study of government venture capital decisions," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 857-876, February.
    6. Suting Hong & Konstantinos Serfes & Veikko Thiele, 2020. "Competition in the venture capital market and the success of startup companies: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 741-791, October.
    7. Giat, Yahel & Subramanian, Ajay, 2013. "Dynamic contracting under imperfect public information and asymmetric beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2833-2861.
    8. Christophe Bonnet & Peter Wirtz, 2011. "Investor Type, Cognitive Governance and Performance in Young Entrepreneurial Ventures: A Conceptual Framework," Post-Print halshs-00642737, HAL.
    9. Zacharakis, Andrew L. & Shepherd, Dean A., 2001. "The nature of information and overconfidence on venture capitalists' decision making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 311-332, July.
    10. Liangyong Wan & Rui Li & Yujiao Chen, 2022. "Negative performance feedback and corporate venture capital: The moderating effect of CEO overconfidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(16), pages 1829-1843, April.
    11. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    12. Ding, Jing & Fang, Libing & Chen, Shi, 2020. "Mitigating free riding in social networks: The impact of underestimating others’ ability in financial market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-599.
    13. Holmstrom, Bengt & Milgrom, Paul, 1987. "Aggregation and Linearity in the Provision of Intertemporal Incentives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 303-328, March.
    14. Lin William Cong & Yizhou Xiao, 2022. "Persistent Blessings of Luck: Theory and an Application to Venture Capital," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1183-1221.
    15. Yahel Giat & Steve T. Hackman & Ajay Subramanian, 2010. "Investment under Uncertainty, Heterogeneous Beliefs, and Agency Conflicts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1360-1404, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thibaut Mastrolia & Dylan Possamai, 2015. "Moral hazard under ambiguity," Papers 1511.03616, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    2. Giat, Yahel & Subramanian, Ajay, 2013. "Dynamic contracting under imperfect public information and asymmetric beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2833-2861.
    3. Thibaut Mastrolia & Dylan Possamaï, 2018. "Moral Hazard Under Ambiguity," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 179(2), pages 452-500, November.
    4. Joon Mahn Lee & Jung Chul Park & Guoli Chen, 2023. "A cognitive perspective on real options investment: CEO overconfidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 1084-1110, April.
    5. James Mirrlees & Roberto Raimondo, 2013. "Strategies in the principal-agent model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(3), pages 605-656, August.
    6. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    7. Hae Won (Henny) Jung & Ajay Subramanian, 2014. "Capital Structure under Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1617-1681.
    8. Seungmoon Choi, 2011. "Closed-Form Likelihood Expansions for Multivariate Time-Inhomogeneous Diffusions," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2011-26, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    9. Julien Prat & Boyan Jovanovic, 2010. "Dynamic Incentive Contracts Under Parameter Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 16649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Cvitanic Jaksa & Wan Xuhu & Zhang Jianfeng, 2008. "Principal-Agent Problems with Exit Options," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-43, October.
    11. Liu, Yu-Hong & Jiang, I-Ming, 2019. "Optimal proportion decision-making for two stages investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 776-785.
    12. Bart M. Lambrecht & Grzegorz Pawlina, 2010. "Corporate Finance and the (In)efficient Exercise of Real Options," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 14(3-4), pages 189-217, September.
    13. Niu, Yingjie & He, Linfeng & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Managerial compensation with hyperbolic discounting," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    14. Li, Rui, 2017. "Dynamic agency with persistent observable shocks," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 74-91.
    15. Lukas, Elmar & Thiergart, Sascha, 2019. "The interaction of debt financing, cash grants and the optimal investment policy under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-299.
    16. Hakenes, Hendrik & Katolnik, Svetlana, 2017. "On the incentive effects of job rotation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 424-441.
    17. Andreas Welling, 2017. "Optimal Carbon Tax Scheme under Uncertainty in an Oligopolistic Market of Polluters," FEMM Working Papers 170001, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    18. Inés Macho-Stadler & David Pérez-Castrillo, 2021. "Agency theory meets matching theory," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 1-33, March.
    19. Poonam Khanna & Lemaro Thompson & Michael Mcdonald, 2015. "Research On Venture Capital Firms’ ‘Investment Behavior A Review’," Working Papers 0197mgt, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    20. Szydlowski, Martin & Yoon, Ji Hee, 2022. "Ambiguity in dynamic contracts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:93:y:2024:i:pa:p:1138-1153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.