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Investment under Uncertainty, Heterogeneous Beliefs, and Agency Conflicts

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  • Yahel Giat
  • Steve T. Hackman
  • Ajay Subramanian

Abstract

We develop a structural model to investigate the effects of asymmetric beliefs and agency conflicts on dynamic principal--agent relationships. Optimism has a first-order effect on incentives, investments, and output, which could reconcile the private equity puzzle. Asymmetric beliefs cause optimal contracts to have features consistent with observed venture capital and research and development (R&D) contracts. We derive testable implications for the effects of project characteristics on contractual features. We calibrate our model to data on pharmaceutical R&D projects and show that optimism indeed significantly influences project values. Permanent and transitory components of risk have opposing effects on project values and durations. The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Yahel Giat & Steve T. Hackman & Ajay Subramanian, 2010. "Investment under Uncertainty, Heterogeneous Beliefs, and Agency Conflicts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1360-1404, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:23:y:2010:i:4:p:1360-1404
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giat, Yahel & Subramanian, Ajay, 2013. "Dynamic contracting under imperfect public information and asymmetric beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2833-2861.
    2. Michele Dell'Era & Luis Santos-Pinto, 2011. "Entrepreneurial Overconfidence, Self-Financing and Capital Market Efficiency," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 11.06, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie, revised Nov 2012.
    3. Campbell, T. Colin, 2014. "CEO optimism and the board's choice of successor," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 495-510.
    4. , & ,, 2014. "Dynamic contracts when agent's quality is unknown," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), September.
    5. Thibaut Mastrolia & Dylan Possamai, 2015. "Moral hazard under ambiguity," Papers 1511.03616, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    6. Martin Szydlowski, 2012. "Ambiguity in Dynamic Contracts," Discussion Papers 1543, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    7. Xiaoming Peng & Yihao Li & Chengxin Guo & Liang Peng & Sijin Tan, 2023. "“Risk” or “Opportunity”? The High Sensitivity of Corporate Green Innovation to Environmental Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Shi Chen & Jyh-Horng Lin & Wenyu Yao & Fu-Wei Huang, 2019. "CEO Overconfidence and Shadow-Banking Life Insurer Performance Under Government Purchases of Distressed Assets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, March.
    9. Milo Bianchi & Rose-Anne Dana & Elyès Jouini, 2022. "Equilibrium CEO contract with belief heterogeneity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 505-546, September.
    10. Alonso, Ricardo & Câmara, Odilon, 2016. "Bayesian persuasion with heterogeneous priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 672-706.
    11. Michael Dreyfuss & Irit Nowik, 2020. "A puzzled driver is a better driver: enforcing speed limits using a randomization strategy," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 76(3), pages 645-660, March.
    12. Ulrike Malmendier, 2018. "Behavioral Corporate Finance," NBER Working Papers 25162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Alonso, Ricardo & Câmara, Odilon, 2014. "Persuading skeptics and reaffirming believers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Szydlowski, Martin & Yoon, Ji Hee, 2022. "Ambiguity in dynamic contracts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    15. Marius Guenzel & Ulrike Malmendier, 2020. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: The Life Cycle of a CEO Career," NBER Working Papers 27635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hae Won (Henny) Jung & Ajay Subramanian, 2014. "Capital Structure under Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1617-1681.
    17. Chen, Zhuming & Luo, Xue, 2024. "Optimal investment and exit decision of venture capitals with multiple heterogeneous Beliefs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1138-1153.
    18. Jakša Cvitanić & Xuhu Wan & Huali Yang, 2013. "Dynamics of Contract Design with Screening," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1229-1244, May.
    19. Chuluun, Tuugi & Graham, Carol, 2016. "Local happiness and firm behavior: Do firms in happy places invest more?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 41-56.
    20. Khrennikova, Polina & Patra, Sudip, 2019. "Asset trading under non-classical ambiguity and heterogeneous beliefs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 562-577.

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