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Measuring Chinese climate uncertainty

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  • Lee, Kiryoung
  • Cho, Juik

Abstract

We develop indices of Twitter-based Chinese Climate Uncertainty (TC-CU) and Climate Policy Uncertainty (TC-CPU) from 2010 to onward. Our indices spike with climate change-related presidential announcements, UN climate change conferences, climate change-related flood deaths, warning about melting glaciers in China’s Qilian mountains, and rising climate concerns regarding bitcoin mining, among many others. We find that TC-CPU can predict future US climate uncertainty and attention measures while US measures do not predict Chinese climate change measures. Moreover, TC-CU (TC-CPU) negatively predicts equity returns of small (value) firms. Finally, we find a decline in CO2 emissions in response to shocks to TC-CU.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Kiryoung & Cho, Juik, 2023. "Measuring Chinese climate uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 891-901.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:88:y:2023:i:c:p:891-901
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Greenstone & John A. List & Chad Syverson, 2011. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Competiveness of U.S. Manufacturing," Working Papers 11-03, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    3. List, John A. & McHone, W. Warren & Millimet, Daniel L., 2004. "Effects of environmental regulation on foreign and domestic plant births: is there a home field advantage?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 303-326, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jianfeng & Yao, Xiaoyang & Wang, Hui & Le, Wei, 2024. "Hedging the climate change risks of China's brown assets: Green assets or precious metals?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Iqbal, Najaf & Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Alsagr, Naif, 2024. "Asymmetric impacts of Chinese climate policy uncertainty on Chinese asset prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Zhao, Huirong & Luo, Na, 2024. "Climate uncertainty and green index volatility: Empirical insights from Chinese financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Da Gao & Xiaotian Zhou & Xiaowei Liu, 2024. "The Bright Side of Uncertainty: The Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Urban Green Total Factor Energy Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Financial Stress: Evidence for China," Working Papers 202428, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Dong, Feng & Li, Zhicheng & Huang, Zihuang & Liu, Yu, 2024. "Extreme weather, policy uncertainty, and risk spillovers between energy, financial, and carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Xu, Xiaoming & Ren, Xingzi & He, Feng, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and bank liquidity creation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Zhang, Dongyang & Bai, Dingchuan & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "Green vs. brown: Climate risk showdown – who’s thriving, who’s diving?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Wu, Guo & Hu, Guoheng, 2024. "Asymmetric spillovers and resilience in physical and financial assets amid climate policy uncertainties: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    10. Mo, Yan & Liu, Xiaotong, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and digital transformation of enterprise—Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    11. Yikai Zhao & Jun Nagayasu & Xinyi Geng, 2024. "Measuring Climate Policy Uncertainty with LLMs: New Insights into Corporate Bond Credit Spreads," DSSR Discussion Papers 143, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twitter; Climate uncertainty; Climate policy uncertainty; China; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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