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The Causality Relationship between Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Portfolio Investments: The Case of Türkiye

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  • Asiye Küçükosman
  • Sümeyye Uzun

Abstract

This study examines the causality relationship between portfolio investments and credit default swaps (CDS) in Türkiye. Analysing the dynamics between portfolio investments and CDS premiums, two important variables for financial markets is critical to understanding how risk perception and investment decisions are affected. While portfolio investments are generally considered an indicator of the confidence of foreign investors in the country's economy, CDS premiums are an important risk measure that reflects the country's debt risk and the risk perception of market participants. In this context, examining the relationships between the two variables contributes to the understanding of the effects of investor behavior and risk perception on macroeconomic indicators in financial markets. In the study, the Granger causality test was applied using data from the period 2014Q1-2024Q1. The results obtained show that CDS premiums have a significant and unidirectional causal effect on portfolio investments. Increases in CDS premiums increase investors' risk perception and lead to a decrease in portfolio investments. On the other hand, no causal effect of portfolio investments on CDS premiums was found. These findings emphasize the importance of risk management in terms of portfolio investments in Türkiye and reveal that CDS premiums play a role in investor decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Asiye Küçükosman & Sümeyye Uzun, 2024. "The Causality Relationship between Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Portfolio Investments: The Case of Türkiye," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 9(3), pages 462-483.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:9:y:2024:i:3:p:462-483
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.1535924
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Directional and bidirectional causality between U.S. industry credit and stock markets and their determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 46-61.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Default Swaps; Portfolio Investments; Granger Causality Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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