IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/retrec/v90y2021ics0739885921000123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transport infrastructure and industrial output in Pakistan: An empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed, Khalid
  • Bhattacharya, Mita
  • Qazi, Ahmer Qasim
  • Ghumro, Niaz Ahmed

Abstract

Development of transport infrastructure is considered to be a key factor in contributing socio-economic development. This research contributes towards the existing literature by analyzing the impact of different types of transport infrastructure (i.e., roads, railways, ports and airways on industrial output for Pakistan. Using annual data over a period of four decades, we apply contemporary time series modelling techniques to establish long-run relationships. The findings confirm the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among all key variables. Labour, capital, roads and ports infrastructure stimulate industrial output in Pakistan. The long-run elasticities suggest that a 1% increase in port and road infrastructure increases industrial value added by 0.36% and 0.28%, respectively. We find weak railways are deterring industrial output, and airways are found to have neutral effects. Our findings are validated by causality analysis and the model is found to be stable and robust. In the wake of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), our findings suggest that future investment in the transport sector should focus more on railways in improving the industrial growth and output of the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Khalid & Bhattacharya, Mita & Qazi, Ahmer Qasim & Ghumro, Niaz Ahmed, 2021. "Transport infrastructure and industrial output in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s0739885921000123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2021.101040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885921000123
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.retrec.2021.101040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    2. Matthew McCartney, 2018. "The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Considering Contemporary Pakistan through Old-Fashioned Economics and Historical Case Studies," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 19-48, July-Dec.
    3. Liu, Xiaotong & Zhang, Kai & Chen, Bokui & Zhou, Jun & Miao, Lixin, 2018. "Analysis of logistics service supply chain for the One Belt and One Road initiative of China," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 23-39.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Robert Osei -- Kyei & Albert P.C. Chan, 2016. "Developing Transport Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa through Public--Private Partnerships: Policy Practice and Implications," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 170-186, March.
    6. Kveiborg, Ole & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2007. "Decomposing the decoupling of Danish road freight traffic growth and economic growth," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 39-48, January.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Clark, Ximena & Dollar, David & Micco, Alejandro, 2004. "Port efficiency, maritime transport costs, and bilateral trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 417-450, December.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Pacheco, Ricardo Rodrigues & Fernandes, Elton, 2017. "International air passenger traffic, trade openness and exchange rate in Brazil: A Granger causality test," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 22-29.
    11. Brueckner, Jan K., 1997. "Infrastructure financing and urban development:: The economics of impact fees," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 383-407, December.
    12. Bougheas, Spiros & Demetriades, Panicos O. & Morgenroth, Edgar L. W., 1999. "Infrastructure, transport costs and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 169-189, February.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Yamaguchi, Katsuhiro, 2007. "Inter-regional air transport accessibility and macro-economic performance in Japan," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 247-258, May.
    15. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Bagchi, Tapan P., 2013. "Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-148.
    16. Canning, David, 1999. "Infrastructure's contribution to aggregate output," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2246, The World Bank.
    17. Riccardo Crescenzi & Marco Di Cataldo & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2016. "Government Quality And The Economic Returns Of Transport Infrastructure Investment In European Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 555-582, September.
    18. Tsekeris, Theodore, 2016. "Interregional trade network analysis for road freight transport in Greece," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 132-148.
    19. Wang, Eric C., 2002. "Public infrastructure and economic growth: a new approach applied to East Asian economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 411-435, August.
    20. Short, Jack & Kopp, Andreas, 2005. "Transport infrastructure: Investment and planning. Policy and research aspects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 360-367, July.
    21. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 360-390.
    22. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    23. Looney, Robert E. & Frederiksen, Peter C., 1998. "Rail track expansion in developing countries in the 1980s," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 131-136, June.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    25. Taotao Deng, 2013. "Impacts of Transport Infrastructure on Productivity and Economic Growth: Recent Advances and Research Challenges," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 686-699, November.
    26. Yoo, Seung-Hoon & Ku, Se-Ju, 2009. "Causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-country analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1905-1913, May.
    27. Phang, Sock-Yong, 2003. "Strategic development of airport and rail infrastructure: the case of Singapore," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 27-33, January.
    28. Bhattacharyay, Biswa N., 2010. "Estimating Demand for Infrastructure in Energy, Transport, Telecommunications, Water and Sanitation in Asia and the Pacific: 2010-2020," ADBI Working Papers 248, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    29. Chen, Dongxu & Yang, Zhongzhen, 2018. "Systematic optimization of port clusters along the Maritime Silk Road in the context of industry transfer and production capacity constraints," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 174-189.
    30. Wen, Xin & Ma, Hoi-Lam & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2019. "Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on the China-Europe trading route selections," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 581-604.
    31. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    32. Toshiyuki Yamamoto & Antti Talvitie, 2011. "Transport infrastructure and services: an Asia and developing world," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(5), pages 715-717, September.
    33. Anna Bottasso & Maurizio Conti, 2010. "The productive effect of transport infrastructures: does road transport liberalization matter?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 27-48, August.
    34. Lai, Kee-hung & Ngai, E. W. T. & Cheng, T. C. E., 2002. "Measures for evaluating supply chain performance in transport logistics," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 439-456, November.
    35. Junjie Hong & Zhaofang Chu & Qiang Wang, 2011. "Transport infrastructure and regional economic growth: evidence from China," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(5), pages 737-752, September.
    36. Macharis, C. & Bontekoning, Y. M., 2004. "Opportunities for OR in intermodal freight transport research: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 400-416, March.
    37. Bhattacharya, Mita & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Bhattacharya, Sankar, 2017. "The regulated coal sector and CO2 emissions in Indian growth process: Empirical evidence over half a century and policy suggestions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 667-678.
    38. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Ramirez, Maria Teresa, 2003. "Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 443-477, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Min Su & Miaomiao Guo & Weixin Luan & Feng Pian, 2023. "The Impact of Expressway Development on Industrial Structure in Rugged Terrain: The Case of Sichuan Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Qing Qin & Churen Sun, 2023. "Empirical Research on the Impact of China’s Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones on the Development of Host Countries in the Global Value Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Min-Ju Song & Young-Joon Seo & Hee-Yong Lee, 2023. "The dynamic relationship between industrialization, urbanization, CO2 emissions, and transportation modes in Korea: empirical evidence from maritime and air transport," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2111-2137, December.
    4. Di Matteo, Dante & Mariotti, Ilaria & Rossi, Federica, 2023. "Transport infrastructure and economic performance: An evaluation of the Milan-Bologna high-speed rail corridor," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alam, Khalid Mehmood & Li, Xuemei & Baig, Saranjam & Ghanem, Osman & Hanif, Salman, 2021. "Causality between transportation infrastructure and economic development in Pakistan: An ARDL analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Bagchi, Tapan P., 2013. "Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-148.
    3. Abdul Jalil & Samia Manan & Sundus Saleemi, 2016. "Estimating the growth effects of services sector: a cointegration analysis for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Pradhan, Rudra P., 2019. "Investigating the causal relationship between transportation infrastructure, financial penetration and economic growth in G-20 countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Jose Fernandez-Serrano & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2003. "Modelling the linkages between US and Latin American stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1423-1434.
    6. Batool, Irem & Goldmann, Kathrin, 2021. "The role of public and private transport infrastructure capital in economic growth. Evidence from Pakistan," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Park, Jin Suk & Seo, Young-Joon & Ha, Min-Ho, 2019. "The role of maritime, land, and air transportation in economic growth: Panel evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    9. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan, 2016. "Energy use, international trade and economic growth nexus in Australia: New evidence from an extended growth model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 806-816.
    10. Devi Prasad DASH & Debi Prasad BAL & Manoranjan SAHOO, 2016. "Nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth in BRIC economies: An empirical investigation," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 89-102, Spring.
    11. Halil Alt ntas & Melike Kum, 2013. "Multivariate Granger Causality between Electricity Generation, Exports, Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 41-51.
    12. Man-Keun Kim & Kangil Lee, 2015. "Dynamic Interactions between Carbon and Energy Prices in the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 494-501.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Matallah, Siham & Zerigui, Khadidja & Matallah, Amal, 2024. "Renewable energy solutions to the lack of access to electricity in conflict-ridden countries: A case study of Yemen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    15. Olena STRYZHAK & Ramazan SAYAR & Yılmaz Onur ARI, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, GDP and tourism: an ARDL-ECM cointegration study on Ukraine," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, May.
    16. Esin Cakan, 2018. "Impact of Financial and Trade Openness on Financial Development in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of Turkey," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 9(4), pages 71-80, March.
    17. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    18. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "The Nexus between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Lao PDR," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317, April.
    19. Jacint Balaguer & Tatiana Florica & Jordi Ripollés, 2015. "Foreign trade and economic growth in Spain (1900–2012): the role of energy imports," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 359-375, December.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Jemaa, Mohamed Mekki Ben, 2015. "On the causal nexus of road transport CO2 emissions and macroeconomic variables in Tunisia: Evidence from combined cointegration tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-100.
    21. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Can Nuclear Energy Stimulates Economic Growth? Evidence from Highly Industrialised Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 164-173.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CPEC; Industrial value added; Transport infrastructure; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s0739885921000123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620614/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.