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Modelling the linkages between US and Latin American stock markets

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  • José L. Fernández-Serrano
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

Abstract

This paper examines the linkages between US and Latin American the stock markets during the 1995-2002 period using recently-developed cointegration techniques that allow for structural shifts in the long-run relationship. Our results suggest that, if we apply conventional cointegration tests, we only find a long-run relationship in the cases of Brazil and Mexico for the Dow Jones (DJ) index and in the case of Brazil for the Standard and Poor's 500 (SP500) index. In contrast, if we introduce the possibility of structural breaks, we find strong evidence in favour of such relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Venezuelan indices and the DJ index after the 1998 financial turmoil, and between the Brazilian and Mexican indices and the DJ index before such turbulence, while some marginal cointegration is detected between the Mexican and DJ indices from February 1998. Additionally, we find evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Mexican indices and the SP500 index from August 1998, April 1999 and October 1999, respectively, and between the Brazilian and the SP500 indices before November 1997, as well as some marginal cointegration between the Mexican and SP500 indices before October 1999. The results suggest that the gains from international diversification for investors with long holding periods is limited.

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  • José L. Fernández-Serrano & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "Modelling the linkages between US and Latin American stock markets," Working Papers 2002-14, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2002-14
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    2. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Hilu, Khalil Al, 2015. "Dynamic transmissions between the U.S. and equity markets in the MENA countries: New evidence from pre- and post-global financial crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 123-138.
    3. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 stock markets: A VAR quantile analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 32-46.
    4. Labidi, Chiaz & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios, 2018. "Quantile dependence between developed and emerging stock markets aftermath of the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 179-211.
    5. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Pedro Rodriguez, 2010. "Linkages in international stock markets: evidence from a classification procedure," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2081-2089.
    6. Lahrech, Abdelmounaim & Sylwester, Kevin, 2013. "The impact of NAFTA on North American stock market linkages," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 94-108.
    7. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Return and Volatility Transmission between World-Leading and Latin American Stock Markets: Portfolio Implications," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Melike E. Bildirici & Mehmet Salman, 2006. "Measuring Default Risk in Turkey: Econometric Approach," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(32), pages 11-36.
    9. Chung-Hua Shen & Chien-Fu Chen & Li-Hsueh Chen, 2007. "An empirical study of the asymmetric cointegration relationships among the Chinese stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1433-1445.
    10. Yi Zheng & Heng Chen, 2011. "Who is More Important – a Leading Power or a Close Neighbor?," Chapters, in: Lilai Xu (ed.), China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Hsu, Ching-Chi & Chien, FengSheng, 2022. "The study of co-movement risk in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1130-1152.
    12. Nildag Basak Ceylan, 2006. "The Effects of G-7 Countries’ Stock Markets on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(32), pages 37-56.
    13. Mr. Srideep D Ganguly & Roberto Benelli, 2007. "Financial Linkages Between the U.S. and Latin America: Evidence from Daily Data," IMF Working Papers 2007/262, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Shiab, Mohammad Al, 2013. "Directional spillovers from the U.S. and the Saudi market to equities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 224-242.
    15. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2016. "Asymmetric price transmission within the Argentinean stock market: an asymmetric threshold cointegration approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1115-1149, November.
    16. Saadet Kirbas Kasman, 2006. "The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(32), pages 1-10.
    17. A. Maghyereh & B. Awartani, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers between Dubai financial market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange in the UAE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 837-848, May.
    18. Ceylan Onay & Gözde Ünal, 2012. "Cointegration and Extreme Value Analyses of Bovespa and the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 66-90, February.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets: common stochastic trends and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 991-1004.
    20. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara & Andrés Felipe Oviedo-Gómez, 2020. "Efecto derrame del mercado internacional en las economías latinoamericanas: los casos de Chile, Brasil, Colombia y México," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 39(70), pages 107-138, July.
    21. Zheng Yi & Chen Heng & Wing-Keung Wong, 2009. "China’s Stock Market Integration with a Leading Power and a Close Neighbor," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37, December.
    22. Hüseyin Dağli; & Uğur Sivri & Semra Bank, 2012. "International portfolio diversification opportunities between Turkey and other emerging markets," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 4-23.
    23. Heng Chen & Russell Smyth & Wing-Keung Wong, 2008. "Is being a super-power more important than being your close neighbour? A study of what moves the Australian stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 733-747.
    24. Maghyereh, Aktham & Awartani, Basel & Abdoh, Hussein, 2022. "Asymmetric risk transfer in global equity markets: An extended sample that includes the COVID pandemic period," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).

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