Forecasting the impact of renewable energies in competition with non-renewable sources

The diffusion dynamics of traditional and clean energy systems, in the energy mix, are studied in a competition modeling, where their interacting life cycles are jointly described. Competition has only been considered recently since diffusion competition models are not easy to be implemented. Data are represented by yearly consumptions (in Mtoe) of traditional sources (coal, oil, gas, and nuclear systems) and a selection of renewable sources (hydroelectric, wind, and solar power) for the US, Europe, China, and India from 1965 to 2014. For each case, we will investigate whether the diffusion level of traditional sources sustains or prevents the spread of renewables and vice versa. For the US and Europe, we will take into account the link between the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the slowdown in consumptions. As a matter of fact, the energy sector is characterized by uncertainty due to the depletion of finite energy sources, the technological and economical problems of renewables, and the hypothesis of shale gas as a possible bridge to renewables that could delay the spread of latter ones. In this scenario, six-year forecasts are provided until 2020.