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Modelling Diffusion Of Wind Power Across Countries

Author

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  • RIDDHI PANSE

    (Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India)

  • VINISH KATHURIA

    (Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the diffusion mechanism of wind power over the last two decades in the leading countries, namely China, the United States, Germany, India and Spain. For each country, three prominent models of technology diffusion (Logistic, Bass and Gompertz) were fitted and the best model is identified based on AIC, BIC and adjusted R2 criteria. The selected diffusion model in each case is then characterised with respect to the policy mechanisms. Often, research follows the "one size fits all" approach and tends to propose one model to define diffusion for all. Here we find that it is not necessarily true. The study then proposes the causal relationship between parameters of the selected model and corresponding policies along with the socioeconomic structure for a country to corroborate our findings. Further, forecasts were generated to predict the saturation point of the diffusion path and solutions are proposed to expand the diffusion curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Riddhi Panse & Vinish Kathuria, 2015. "Modelling Diffusion Of Wind Power Across Countries," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijimxx:v:19:y:2015:i:04:n:s1363919615500371
    DOI: 10.1142/S1363919615500371
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michaelowa, Axel, 2004. "The German Wind Energy Lobby: How to successfully promote costly technological change," HWWA Discussion Papers 296, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    2. Michaelowa, Axel, 2004. "The German Wind Energy Lobby: How to Successfully Promote Costly Technological Change," Discussion Paper Series 26349, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    3. Dirk Fornahl & Robert Hassink & Claudia Klaerding & Ivo Mossig & Heike Schröder, 2011. "From the Old Path of Shipbuilding onto the New Path of Offshore Wind Energy? The Case of Northern Germany," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 835-855, September.
    4. Stéphane Guérard & Ann Langley, 2007. "Shifting logics of legitimation in the diffusion of complex innovations," Working Papers 0703, University of Lausanne, Institute of Health Economics and Management (IEMS).
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    Cited by:

    1. Furlan, Claudia & Mortarino, Cinzia, 2018. "Forecasting the impact of renewable energies in competition with non-renewable sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1879-1886.
    2. Tibebu, Tiruwork B. & Hittinger, Eric & Miao, Qing & Williams, Eric, 2022. "Roles of diffusion patterns, technological progress, and environmental benefits in determining optimal renewable subsidies in the US," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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