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Interaction among three substitute products: an extended innovation diffusion model

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Furlan

    (University of Padova)

  • Cinzia Mortarino

    (University of Padova)

  • Mohammad Salim Zahangir

    (University of Padova)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a model to describe the mutual interactions among the lifecycles of three substitute products acting simultaneously in a common market, thus competing for the same customers or cooperating to supply demand. To date, the literature only describes models for two competitors; therefore, the present work represents the first attempt at creating and implementing a model for three actors. The new model is applied to real data in the energy context, and its performance is compared to the performance of current models for two competitors. Regarding the datasets examined, the new model shows a relevant improvement in terms of forecasting performance, that is forecasting accuracy and prediction confidence band width.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Furlan & Cinzia Mortarino & Mohammad Salim Zahangir, 2021. "Interaction among three substitute products: an extended innovation diffusion model," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 269-293, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:30:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10260-020-00524-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-020-00524-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Savio & Luigi De Giovanni & Mariangela Guidolin, 2022. "Modelling Energy Transition in Germany: An Analysis through Ordinary Differential Equations and System Dynamics," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, April.

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