IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v176y2023ics1364032123000461.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sustainable energy transition and its demand for scarce resources: Insights into the German Energiewende through a new risk assessment framework

Author

Listed:
  • Schischke, A.
  • Papenfuß, P.
  • Brem, M.
  • Kurz, P.
  • Rathgeber, A.W.

Abstract

In this study, a new framework to analyze resource-demanding projects in regard to their risk of resource scarcity is proposed and exemplary applied on the German energy transition (Energiewende). With the interpretation of a commodity’s price as an economic scarcity indicator, price thresholds are defined, which, once exceeded, determine a commodity to be scarce. The corresponding probability of scarcity is derived via a logistic regression model, given pre-selected price determinants. The combination of this probability of scarcity with the substitutability of a commodity, as well as the scaled demand per project, results in the commodity-specific expected loss due to scarcity, which, aggregated over all commodities, marks the final risk indicator, the expected loss due to scarcity per project. In a case study, the framework is applied to the resource requirements for eight transformation pathways of the German energy system, differing in the climate targets as well as the German societies acceptance for the required actions. The results highlight the general high demand in cobalt, mainly used for energy storage. In combination with a relatively high probability of scarcity, this reveals a potential bottleneck for the German Energiewende.

Suggested Citation

  • Schischke, A. & Papenfuß, P. & Brem, M. & Kurz, P. & Rathgeber, A.W., 2023. "Sustainable energy transition and its demand for scarce resources: Insights into the German Energiewende through a new risk assessment framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:176:y:2023:i:c:s1364032123000461
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032123000461
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113190?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2012. "Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2078-2101.
    2. Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
    3. Thomas Betten & Shivenes Shammugam & Roberta Graf, 2020. "Adjustment of the Life Cycle Inventory in Life Cycle Assessment for the Flexible Integration into Energy Systems Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    5. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel, 2018. "Material bottlenecks in the future development of green technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-200.
    6. Månberger, André & Stenqvist, Björn, 2018. "Global metal flows in the renewable energy transition: Exploring the effects of substitutes, technological mix and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 226-241.
    7. Stephen A. Rhoades, 1993. "The Herfindahl-Hirschman index," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Mar, pages 188-189.
    8. Dimitropoulos, Dimitri & Yatchew, Adonis, 2018. "Discerning Trends In Commodity Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 683-701, April.
    9. Juan Ignacio Guzmán & Enrique Silva, 2018. "Copper price determination: fundamentals versus non-fundamentals," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, October.
    10. Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K & Varangis, Panayotis, 1996. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices Reconsidered," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 275-291, May-June.
    11. John Baffes & Alain Kabundi & Peter Nagle, 2022. "The role of income and substitution in commodity demand [Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 498-522.
    12. Shiu‐Sheng Chen, 2016. "Commodity prices and related equity prices," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 949-967, August.
    13. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    14. John Baffes & Cristina Savescu, 2014. "Monetary conditions and metal prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 447-452, May.
    15. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
    16. Sima Siami‐Namini, 2021. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices: A SVECM Approach," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 288-312, December.
    17. Tilton, John E. & Crowson, Phillip C.F. & DeYoung, John H. & Eggert, Roderick G. & Ericsson, Magnus & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Humphreys, David & Lagos, Gustavo & Maxwell, Philip & Radetzki, Marian & Si, 2018. "Public policy and future mineral supplies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-60.
    18. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    19. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    20. Jeffrey A Frankel & Andrew K Rose, 2010. "Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 2003. "A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-310, August.
    22. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & Tukker, Arnold & van der Voet, Ester, 2022. "Material requirements for low-carbon energy technologies: A quantitative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    23. Ohashi, Kazuhiko & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2016. "Increasing trends in the excess comovement of commodity prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 48-64.
    24. Fabian Lutzenberger & Benedikt Gleich & Herbert G. Mayer & Christian Stepanek & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2017. "Metals: resources or financial assets? A multivariate cross-sectional analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 927-958, November.
    25. Cifuentes, Sebastián & Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2020. "Expected prices, futures prices and time-varying risk premiums: The case of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    26. Paul W. Gruber & Pablo A. Medina & Gregory A. Keoleian & Stephen E. Kesler & Mark P. Everson & Timothy J. Wallington, 2011. "Global Lithium Availability," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 15(5), pages 760-775, October.
    27. Kagraoka, Yusho, 2016. "Common dynamic factors in driving commodity prices: Implications of a generalized dynamic factor model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 609-617.
    28. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.
    29. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
    30. Fernandez, Viviana, 2015. "Commodity price excess co-movement from a historical perspective: 1900–2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 698-710.
    31. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    32. Cuddington, John T. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2013. "A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 75-87.
    33. Fernandez, Viviana, 2020. "The predictive power of convenience yields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    34. Rosenau-Tornow, Dirk & Buchholz, Peter & Riemann, Axel & Wagner, Markus, 2009. "Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials--a combined evaluation of past and future trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 161-175, December.
    35. Viebahn, Peter & Soukup, Ole & Samadi, Sascha & Teubler, Jens & Wiesen, Klaus & Ritthoff, Michael, 2015. "Assessing the need for critical minerals to shift the German energy system towards a high proportion of renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 655-671.
    36. Lee, J. & Bazilian, M. & Sovacool, B. & Hund, K. & Jowitt, S.M. & Nguyen, T.P. & Månberger, A. & Kah, M. & Greene, S. & Galeazzi, C. & Awuah-Offei, K. & Moats, M. & Tilton, J. & Kukoda, S., 2020. "Reviewing the material and metal security of low-carbon energy transitions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    37. Arendt, Rosalie & Muhl, Marco & Bach, Vanessa & Finkbeiner, Matthias, 2020. "Criticality assessment of abiotic resource use for Europe– application of the SCARCE method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    38. Prokopczuk, Marcel & Stancu, Andrei & Symeonidis, Lazaros, 2019. "The economic drivers of commodity market volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    39. In, Soh Young & Manav, Berk & Venereau, Clothilde M.A. & Cruz R., Luis Enrique & Weyant, John P., 2022. "Climate-related financial risk assessment on energy infrastructure investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    40. Matěj Liberda, 2017. "Mixed-frequency Drivers of Precious Metal Prices," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(6), pages 2007-2015.
    41. Gleich, Benedikt & Achzet, Benjamin & Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 350-362.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Min & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wei, Lijian, 2020. "Macro factors and the realized volatility of commodities: A dynamic network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    3. Pauline Bucciarelli & Emmanuel Hache & Valérie Mignon, 2024. "Evaluating criticality of strategic metals: Are the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and usual concentration thresholds still relevant?," Working Papers hal-04452384, HAL.
    4. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    5. Hu, Xueyue & Wang, Chunying & Elshkaki, Ayman, 2024. "Material-energy Nexus: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Jumps in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 55-70.
    7. Fernandez, Viviana & Pastén-Henríquez, Boris & Tapia-Griñen, Pablo & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2023. "Commodity prices under the threat of operational disruptions: Labor strikes at copper mines," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    8. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Teixeira, Bernardo & Brito, Miguel Centeno & Mateus, António, 2024. "Raw materials for the Portuguese decarbonization roadmap: The case of solar photovoltaics and wind energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2024. "The shape of the Treasury yield curve and commodity prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Liu, Lu & Zhang, Xiang, 2019. "Financialization and commodity excess spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 195-216.
    13. József Popp & Judit Oláh & Mária Farkas Fekete & Zoltán Lakner & Domicián Máté, 2018. "The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    14. Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and financialization of commodities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2023. "Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    16. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    17. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    19. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    20. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:176:y:2023:i:c:s1364032123000461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.