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A Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis

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  • Angus Deaton

    (Crest)

  • Guy Laroque

    (Crest)

Abstract

We develop an idea from Arthur Lewis' paper on unlimited supplies of labor to model the long run behavior of the prices of primary commodity produced by poor countries. Commodity supply is assumed infinitely elastic in the long run, and the rate of growth of supply responds to the excess of the current price over the long run supply price. Demand is linked to the level of world income and to the price of the commodity, so that price is stationary around its supply price, and commodity supply and world income are cointegrated. The model is fitted to long-run historical data.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 2002. "A Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Working Papers 2002-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2002-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    2. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Lewis Cecil Gray, 1914. "Rent under the Assumption of Exhaustibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 28(3), pages 466-489.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    6. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    7. Robert Halvorsen & Tim R. Smith, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 123-140.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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