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Understanding solar resource variability: An in-depth analysis, using Chile as a case of study

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  • Castillejo-Cuberos, Armando
  • Escobar, Rodrigo

Abstract

Short-term solar radiation variability is a key parameter to understand the solar resource, as it is concerned with describing the dynamic characteristics of irradiance, that have significant transient effects in solar system performance. Worldwide installed solar capacity is consistently increasing and it can considerably affect the dynamics of electric systems. An understanding of resource dynamics and how it affects power forecasts will become paramount for appropriate handling of the solar resource. Chile showcases this scenario, as solar installed capacity is close to 10% of the nationwide total and energy curtailment is occurring mainly due to transmission restrictions. Although several metrics are available in the literature to assess solar resource variability, consensus needs to be stablished, as well as a common framework to evaluate results obtained through the different metrics. This work analyses 1-min resolution data for several years at eight locations in Chile to assess short-term solar radiation variability using 6 well-stablished metrics, compares the information provided by each one and develops correlations to compare results among them. Additionally, high-speed transient phenomena are analyzed and a new metric is defined to assess the solar resource with respect to its quality in static and dynamic terms. Finally, four day classification schemes are developed and evaluated, and results for Chile are shown in the context of its geography and climatological classification.

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  • Castillejo-Cuberos, Armando & Escobar, Rodrigo, 2020. "Understanding solar resource variability: An in-depth analysis, using Chile as a case of study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:120:y:2020:i:c:s136403211930869x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109664
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    1. Czekalski, D. & Chochowski, A. & Obstawski, P., 2012. "Parameterization of daily solar irradiance variability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2461-2467.
    2. Rojas, Redlich García & Alvarado, Natalia & Boland, John & Escobar, Rodrigo & Castillejo-Cuberos, Armando, 2019. "Diffuse fraction estimation using the BRL model and relationship of predictors under Chilean, Costa Rican and Australian climatic conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1091-1106.
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    6. Tripathy, Sujit Kumar & Mitra, Indradip & Heinemann, Detlev & Giridhar, Godugunur & Gomathinayagam, S., 2017. "Impact assessment of short-term variability of solar radiation in Rajasthan using SRRA data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 798-806.
    7. Zurita, Adriana & Castillejo-Cuberos, Armando & García, Maurianny & Mata-Torres, Carlos & Simsek, Yeliz & García, Redlich & Antonanzas-Torres, Fernando & Escobar, Rodrigo A., 2018. "State of the art and future prospects for solar PV development in Chile," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 701-727.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Yanwei & Li, Ying & Wang, Run & Ma, Renfeng, 2023. "Assessing the national synergy potential of onshore and offshore renewable energy from the perspective of resources dynamic and complementarity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    2. Armando Castillejo-Cuberos & José Miguel Cardemil & Rodrigo Escobar, 2021. "Analyzing Regional and Local Changes in Irradiance during the 2019 Total Solar Eclipse in Chile, Using Field Observations and Analytical Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Castillejo-Cuberos, A. & Cardemil, J.M. & Escobar, R., 2023. "Techno-economic assessment of photovoltaic plants considering high temporal resolution and non-linear dynamics of battery storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    4. Ian M. Trotter & Torjus F. Bolkesj{o} & Eirik O. J{aa}stad & Jon Gustav Kirkerud, 2021. "Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System," Papers 2112.02893, arXiv.org.
    5. Sun, Yanwei & Li, Ying & Wang, Run & Ma, Renfeng, 2022. "Measuring dynamics of solar energy resource quality: Methodology and policy implications for reducing regional energy inequality," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 138-150.
    6. da Rocha, Vinicius Roggério & Costa, Rodrigo Santos & Martins, Fernando Ramos & Gonçalves, André Rodrigues & Pereira, Enio Bueno, 2022. "Variability index of solar resource based on data from surface and satellite," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 354-378.
    7. Akram Qashou & Sufian Yousef & Erika Sanchez-Velazquez, 2022. "Mining sensor data in a smart environment: a study of control algorithms and microgrid testbed for temporal forecasting and patterns of failure," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(5), pages 2371-2390, October.
    8. José M. Cardemil & Ignacio Calderón-Vásquez & Alan Pino & Allan Starke & Ian Wolde & Carlos Felbol & Leonardo F. L. Lemos & Vinicius Bonini & Ignacio Arias & Javier Iñigo-Labairu & Jürgen Dersch & Rod, 2022. "Assessing the Uncertainties of Simulation Approaches for Solar Thermal Systems Coupled to Industrial Processes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-29, May.
    9. Armando Castillejo-Cuberos & John Boland & Rodrigo Escobar, 2021. "Short-Term Deterministic Solar Irradiance Forecasting Considering a Heuristics-Based, Operational Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.
    10. Catalina Hernández Moris & Maria Teresa Cerda Guevara & Alois Salmon & Alvaro Lorca, 2021. "Comparison between Concentrated Solar Power and Gas-Based Generation in Terms of Economic and Flexibility-Related Aspects in Chile," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.

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