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Optimal Strategies for Investment in Generation of Electric Energy through Real Options

Author

Listed:
  • Caminha-Noronha, J. C.
  • Marangon-Lima, J. W.
  • Leite-Ferreira, T. G.
  • Unsihuay, C.
  • Zambroni de Souza, A. C.

Abstract

The Brazilian electric sector has two market-environments for the energy supply: a regulated pool (ACR), with 64 power distribution companies, and the free market (ACL), including free-consumers and energy wholesalers. In the regulated market, the power generation competition is enforced via energy auctions, where the winning generator has to sign long-term standard power purchase agreements (PPA) simultaneously with all distributors at the bidding-price. In this work we use the Real Options Theory to valuate new hydraulic generation assets, which will be traded in the new energy auction. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. A real example is presented, in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the waiting to invest in a new hydro power plant and an abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights. Since the project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Caminha-Noronha, J. C. & Marangon-Lima, J. W. & Leite-Ferreira, T. G. & Unsihuay, C. & Zambroni de Souza, A. C., 2006. "Optimal Strategies for Investment in Generation of Electric Energy through Real Options," MPRA Paper 18000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18000
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18000/1/MPRA_paper_18000.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moreira, Ajax & Rocha, Katia & David, Pedro, 2004. "Thermopower generation investment in Brazil--economic conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 91-100, January.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Balibrea-Iniesta, José & Rodríguez-Monroy, Carlos & Núñez-Guerrero, Yilsy María, 2021. "Economic analysis of the German regulation for electrical generation projects from biogas applying the theory of real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Jos Balibrea-Iniesta & Antonio S nchez-Soli o & Antonio Lara-Galera, 2015. "Application of Real Options Theory to the Assessment of Public Incentives for Onshore Wind Energy Development in Spain," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 791-800.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Power Generation Investments; Real Options; Investment Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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