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Estimating technical potential for rooftop photovoltaics in California, Arizona and New Jersey

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  • Kurdgelashvili, Lado
  • Li, Junli
  • Shih, Cheng-Hao
  • Attia, Benjamin

Abstract

Due to the explosive growth of cumulative installed capacity of solar photovoltaic technology across the US in the last five years, industry attention has started to shift to understanding market saturation levels, at which year-over-year growth would be expected to decline significantly. On the residential and commercial scales, the saturation point in the market for distributed PV installations is directly dependent on physical roof space availability. This paper details the multi-level estimation methodology used to estimate rooftop PV potential in the commercial and residential sectors in three leading states: California, Arizona, and New Jersey, which combined account for two-thirds of the cumulative installed PV capacity in the U.S. The estimation methodology shows significant growth potential for rooftop PV in the residential and commercial sectors in these leading states, conservatively estimating that rooftop PV could provide 35%, 43%, and 61% of state electricity demand in New Jersey, Arizona, and California, respectively. According to the results of this analysis, these states could increase current installed distributed PV capacity by 20 times, 30 times, and 40 times, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurdgelashvili, Lado & Li, Junli & Shih, Cheng-Hao & Attia, Benjamin, 2016. "Estimating technical potential for rooftop photovoltaics in California, Arizona and New Jersey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 286-302.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:95:y:2016:i:c:p:286-302
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2016.03.105
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    6. Lee, Minhyun & Hong, Taehoon & Jeong, Kwangbok & Kim, Jimin, 2018. "A bottom-up approach for estimating the economic potential of the rooftop solar photovoltaic system considering the spatial and temporal diversity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 640-656.
    7. John Byrne & Job Taminiau & Kyung Nam Kim & Joohee Lee & Jeongseok Seo, 2017. "Multivariate analysis of solar city economics: impact of energy prices, policy, finance, and cost on urban photovoltaic power plant implementation," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), July.
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    9. Abdullah Shaher & Saad Alqahtani & Ali Garada & Liana Cipcigan, 2023. "Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic in Saudi Arabia to Supply Electricity Demand in Localised Urban Areas: A Study of the City of Abha," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    10. Xiaoyang Song & Yaohuan Huang & Chuanpeng Zhao & Yuxin Liu & Yanguo Lu & Yongguo Chang & Jie Yang, 2018. "An Approach for Estimating Solar Photovoltaic Potential Based on Rooftop Retrieval from Remote Sensing Images," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Kurdgelashvili, Lado & Shih, Cheng-Hao & Yang, Fan & Garg, Mehul, 2019. "An empirical analysis of county-level residential PV adoption in California," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 321-333.
    12. Alhammami, Hasan & An, Heungjo, 2021. "Techno-economic analysis and policy implications for promoting residential rooftop solar photovoltaics in Abu Dhabi, UAE," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 359-368.
    13. Stanley Risch & Rachel Maier & Junsong Du & Noah Pflugradt & Peter Stenzel & Leander Kotzur & Detlef Stolten, 2022. "Potentials of Renewable Energy Sources in Germany and the Influence of Land Use Datasets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-25, July.
    14. Sredenšek, Klemen & Štumberger, Bojan & Hadžiselimović, Miralem & Mavsar, Primož & Seme, Sebastijan, 2022. "Physical, geographical, technical, and economic potential for the optimal configuration of photovoltaic systems using a digital surface model and optimization method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    15. Primož Mavsar & Klemen Sredenšek & Bojan Štumberger & Miralem Hadžiselimović & Sebastijan Seme, 2019. "Simplified Method for Analyzing the Availability of Rooftop Photovoltaic Potential," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-17, November.

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