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A hybrid strategy of short term wind power prediction

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  • Peng, Huaiwu
  • Liu, Fangrui
  • Yang, Xiaofeng

Abstract

Two different prediction methods are investigated for short term wind power prediction of a wind farm in this paper. The adopted strategies are individual artificial neural network (ANN) and hybrid strategy based on the physical and the statistical methods. The performance of two prediction methods is comprehensively compared. The calculated results show that the individual ANN prediction method can yield the prediction results quickly. The prediction accuracy is low and the root mean squared error (RMSE) is 10.67%. By contrast the hybrid prediction method operates costly and slowly. However, the prediction accuracy is high and the RMSE is 2.01%, less than 1/5 of that by individual ANN method. Meanwhile, it is found that the errors of the prediction have some relation with the wind speeds. The prediction errors are small when the wind speeds lower than 5 m/s or higher than 15 m/s. The reasons for such phenomena are also investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Huaiwu & Liu, Fangrui & Yang, Xiaofeng, 2013. "A hybrid strategy of short term wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 590-595.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:50:y:2013:i:c:p:590-595
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.07.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2009. "Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, México, using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 274-278.
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    2. Liu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Lv, J. & Zhai, X.B. & Li, Y.F. & Zhou, B.Y., 2023. "Development of an integrated model on the basis of GCMs-RF-FA for predicting wind energy resources under climate change impact: A case study of Jing-Jin-Ji region in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
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    4. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    5. Cui, Yang & Chen, Zhenghong & He, Yingjie & Xiong, Xiong & Li, Fen, 2023. "An algorithm for forecasting day-ahead wind power via novel long short-term memory and wind power ramp events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    6. Shahram Hanifi & Xiaolei Liu & Zi Lin & Saeid Lotfian, 2020. "A Critical Review of Wind Power Forecasting Methods—Past, Present and Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-24, July.
    7. Gyeongmin Kim & Jin Hur, 2021. "A Short-Term Power Output Forecasting Based on Augmented Naïve Bayes Classifiers for High Wind Power Penetrations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-12, November.
    8. Vadim Manusov & Pavel Matrenin & Muso Nazarov & Svetlana Beryozkina & Murodbek Safaraliev & Inga Zicmane & Anvari Ghulomzoda, 2023. "Short-Term Prediction of the Wind Speed Based on a Learning Process Control Algorithm in Isolated Power Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, January.
    9. M. I. Dieste-Velasco & M. Diez-Mediavilla & C. Alonso-Tristán, 2018. "Regression and ANN Models for Electronic Circuit Design," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-9, July.
    10. Hao, Ying & Dong, Lei & Liao, Xiaozhong & Liang, Jun & Wang, Lijie & Wang, Bo, 2019. "A novel clustering algorithm based on mathematical morphology for wind power generation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 572-585.
    11. Ouyang, Tinghui & Zha, Xiaoming & Qin, Liang & Xiong, Yi & Huang, Heming, 2017. "Model of selecting prediction window in ramps forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 98-107.
    12. Yagang Zhang & Jingyun Yang & Kangcheng Wang & Yinding Wang, 2014. "Lorenz Wind Disturbance Model Based on Grey Generated Components," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Shukur, Osamah Basheer & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam, 2015. "Daily wind speed forecasting through hybrid KF-ANN model based on ARIMA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 637-647.
    14. Liu, Jinqiang & Wang, Xiaoru & Lu, Yun, 2017. "A novel hybrid methodology for short-term wind power forecasting based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 620-629.
    15. Gualtieri, Giovanni, 2015. "Surface turbulence intensity as a predictor of extrapolated wind resource to the turbine hub height," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 68-81.
    16. Sun, Fei & Jin, Tongdan, 2022. "A hybrid approach to multi-step, short-term wind speed forecasting using correlated features," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 742-754.
    17. Sun, Gaiping & Jiang, Chuanwen & Cheng, Pan & Liu, Yangyang & Wang, Xu & Fu, Yang & He, Yang, 2018. "Short-term wind power forecasts by a synthetical similar time series data mining method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 575-584.
    18. Wang, Cong & Zhang, Hongli & Fan, Wenhui & Ma, Ping, 2017. "A new chaotic time series hybrid prediction method of wind power based on EEMD-SE and full-parameters continued fraction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 977-990.
    19. Li-Ling Peng & Guo-Feng Fan & Min-Liang Huang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2016. "Hybridizing DEMD and Quantum PSO with SVR in Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-20, March.
    20. Erasmo Cadenas & Wilfrido Rivera & Rafael Campos-Amezcua & Christopher Heard, 2016. "Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    21. Lin, Zi & Liu, Xiaolei, 2020. "Wind power forecasting of an offshore wind turbine based on high-frequency SCADA data and deep learning neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    22. Bigdeli, Nooshin & Afshar, Karim & Gazafroudi, Amin Shokri & Ramandi, Mostafa Yousefi, 2013. "A comparative study of optimal hybrid methods for wind power prediction in wind farm of Alberta, Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 20-29.
    23. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.

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