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Advanced Wind Speed Prediction Model Based on a Combination of Weibull Distribution and an Artificial Neural Network

Author

Listed:
  • Athraa Ali Kadhem

    (Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University Putra Malaysia, Selangor 43400, Malaysia)

  • Noor Izzri Abdul Wahab

    (Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University Putra Malaysia, Selangor 43400, Malaysia)

  • Ishak Aris

    (Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University Putra Malaysia, Selangor 43400, Malaysia)

  • Jasronita Jasni

    (Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University Putra Malaysia, Selangor 43400, Malaysia)

  • Ahmed N. Abdalla

    (Faculty of Electronics Information Engineering, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai’an 223003, China)

Abstract

One of the most crucial prerequisites for effective wind power planning and operation in power systems is precise wind speed forecasting. Highly random fluctuations of wind influenced by the conditions of the atmosphere, weather and terrain result in difficulties of forecasting regardless of whether it is short-term or long-term. The current study has developed a method to model wind speed data predictions with dependence on seasonal wind variations over a particular time frame, usually a year, in the form of a Weibull distribution model with an artificial neural network (ANN). As a result, the essential dependencies between the wind speed and seasonal weather variation are exploited. The proposed model utilizes the ANN to predict the wind speed data, which has similar chronological and seasonal characteristics to the actual wind data. This model was applied to wind speed databases from selected sites in Malaysia, namely Mersing, Kudat, and Kuala Terengganu, to validate the proposed model. The results indicate that the proposed hybrid artificial neural network (HANN) model is capable of depicting the fluctuating wind speed during different seasons of the year at different locations.

Suggested Citation

  • Athraa Ali Kadhem & Noor Izzri Abdul Wahab & Ishak Aris & Jasronita Jasni & Ahmed N. Abdalla, 2017. "Advanced Wind Speed Prediction Model Based on a Combination of Weibull Distribution and an Artificial Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1744-:d:116915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Vladimir Simankov & Pavel Buchatskiy & Semen Teploukhov & Stefan Onishchenko & Anatoliy Kazak & Petr Chetyrbok, 2023. "Review of Estimating and Predicting Models of the Wind Energy Amount," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-24, August.
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    5. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    6. Domenico Palladino & Iole Nardi & Cinzia Buratti, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network for the Thermal Comfort Index Prediction: Development of a New Simplified Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-27, September.
    7. Dongbum Kang & Kyungnam Ko & Jongchul Huh, 2018. "Comparative Study of Different Methods for Estimating Weibull Parameters: A Case Study on Jeju Island, South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Erick López & Carlos Valle & Héctor Allende & Esteban Gil & Henrik Madsen, 2018. "Wind Power Forecasting Based on Echo State Networks and Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Hugo T. V. Gouveia & Murilo A. Souza & Aida A. Ferreira & Jonata C. de Albuquerque & Otoni Nóbrega Neto & Milde Maria da Silva Lira & Ronaldo R. B. de Aquino, 2023. "Application of Augmented Echo State Networks and Genetic Algorithm to Improve Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Yang, Yuqi & Zhou, Jianzhong & Liu, Guangbiao & Mo, Li & Wang, Yongqiang & Jia, Benjun & He, Feifei, 2020. "Multi-plan formulation of hydropower generation considering uncertainty of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    11. Jianguo Zhou & Xuechao Yu & Baoling Jin, 2018. "Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: A New Hybrid Model Combined Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition, Extreme Learning Machine and Particle Swarm Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
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