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An investigation of the impacts of climate change on wave energy generation: The Wave Hub, Cornwall, UK

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  • Reeve, D.E.
  • Chen, Y.
  • Pan, S.
  • Magar, V.
  • Simmonds, D.J.
  • Zacharioudaki, A.

Abstract

In this paper a generic methodology is presented that allows the impacts of climate change on wave energy generation from a wave energy converter (WEC) to be quantified. The methodology is illustrated by application to the Wave Hub site off the coast of Cornwall, UK. Control and future wave climates were derived using wind fields output from a set of climate change experiments. Control wave conditions were generated from wind data between 1961 and 2000. Future wave conditions were generated using two IPCC wind scenarios from 2061 to 2100, corresponding to intermediate and low greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC scenarios A1B and B1 respectively). The quantitative comparison between future scenarios and the control condition shows that the available wave power will increase by 2–3% in the A1B scenario. In contrast, the available wave power in the B1 scenario will decrease by 1–3%, suggesting, somewhat paradoxically, that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may reduce the wave energy resource. Meanwhile, the WEC energy will yield decrease by 2–3% in both A1B and B1 scenarios, which is mainly due to the relatively low efficiency of energy extraction from steeper waves by the specific WEC considered. Although those changes are relatively small compared to the natural variability, they may have significance when considered over the lifetime of a wave energy farm. Analysis of downtime under low and high thresholds suggests that the distribution of wave heights at the Wave Hub will have a wider spread due to the impacts of climate change, resulting in longer periods of generation loss. Conversely, the estimation of future changes in joint wave height-period distribution provides indications on how the response and power matrices of WECs could be modified in order to maintain or improve energy extraction in the future.

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  • Reeve, D.E. & Chen, Y. & Pan, S. & Magar, V. & Simmonds, D.J. & Zacharioudaki, A., 2011. "An investigation of the impacts of climate change on wave energy generation: The Wave Hub, Cornwall, UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2404-2413.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:36:y:2011:i:9:p:2404-2413
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2011.02.020
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    10. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    11. Fairley, Iain & Lewis, Matthew & Robertson, Bryson & Hemer, Mark & Masters, Ian & Horrillo-Caraballo, Jose & Karunarathna, Harshinie & Reeve, Dominic E., 2020. "A classification system for global wave energy resources based on multivariate clustering," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    12. Ribeiro, A.S. & deCastro, M. & Costoya, X. & Rusu, Liliana & Dias, J.M. & Gomez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "A Delphi method to classify wave energy resource for the 21st century: Application to the NW Iberian Peninsula," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    13. Abanades, J. & Greaves, D. & Iglesias, G., 2015. "Coastal defence using wave farms: The role of farm-to-coast distance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 572-582.
    14. Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A.S. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Suitability of wave energy converters in northwestern Spain under the near future winter wave climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    15. Sierra, J.P. & Casas-Prat, M. & Campins, E., 2017. "Impact of climate change on wave energy resource: The case of Menorca (Spain)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 275-285.
    16. Harshinie Karunarathna & Pravin Maduwantha & Bahareh Kamranzad & Harsha Rathnasooriya & Kasun De Silva, 2020. "Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Future Ocean Wave Power Potential: A Case Study from the Indian Ocean," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    17. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    18. Reguero, B.G. & Losada, I.J. & Méndez, F.J., 2015. "A global wave power resource and its seasonal, interannual and long-term variability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 366-380.
    19. Ryan G. Coe & Yi-Hsiang Yu & Jennifer Van Rij, 2017. "A Survey of WEC Reliability, Survival and Design Practices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    20. Carballo, R. & Iglesias, G., 2013. "Wave farm impact based on realistic wave-WEC interaction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 216-229.
    21. Muhammed Zafar Ali Khan & Haider Ali Khan & Muhammad Aziz, 2022. "Harvesting Energy from Ocean: Technologies and Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-43, May.
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    23. Zheng, Chong Wei & Wang, Qing & Li, Chong Yin, 2017. "An overview of medium- to long-term predictions of global wave energy resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1492-1502.

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