Estimating annual energy production from short tidal current records

Deploying Tidal Energy Converters for electricity generation requires prior-knowledge of the potential Annual Energy Production (AEP) at the site, Ideally using a year-long tidal current record at the proposed site to minimize uncertainty. However, such records are often unavailable. Fortunately, using the periodic nature of tidal variability, the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification for tidal energy resource assessment requires AEP calculation using at least 90 days of tidal current records at each turbine location. The sensitivity of AEP to different record durations has not been fully assessed. This is the goal of our study. The study utilized the U.S. tidal energy geodatabase to simulate tidal currents with various lengths, during 100 years of the 21st century. We then consider two frameworks for evaluating AEP: (a) The long-term (months) fixed instrument (FI) measurement at each proposed tidal turbine location, and (b) one FI measurement and short-term (hours) boat-based moving vessel measurements. Under the two scenarios, we examine the AEP assessed from short tidal current records, including how the AEP uncertainties vary spatially and temporally, and how they are associated with various astronomical factors. This helps provide guidance on choosing the appropriate assessment methodologies to reduce the AEP uncertainties and project cost.