IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v283y2023ics0360544223020637.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-timescale photovoltaic power forecasting using an improved Stacking ensemble algorithm based LSTM-Informer model

Author

Listed:
  • Cao, Yisheng
  • Liu, Gang
  • Luo, Donghua
  • Bavirisetti, Durga Prasad
  • Xiao, Gang

Abstract

As more and more photovoltaic (PV) systems are integrated into the grid, the intelligent operation of the grid system is facing significant challenges. Therefore, accurately forecasting PV power output at various time scales is particularly urgent. To meet this demand, this paper proposes an LSTM-Informer model based on an improved Stacking ensemble algorithm (ISt-LSTM-Informer). The proposed model improves the k-fold cross validation in the traditional Stacking algorithm to a time-series cross validation for integrating time-series forecasting models. Simultaneously, it utilizes long short-term memory (LSTM) and Informer as the base models. By integrating the advantages of the two base models, the ISt-LSTM-Informer achieves accurate short and medium-term PV power forecasting. To validate the effectiveness of the model, a historical dataset from a PV system located in Uluru, Australia, is used for various types of experiments. Among them, comparative experiments validate the superiority of the model. Compared with five other methods, the ISt-LSTM-Informer obtains 21 optimal results for the four evaluation metrics of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 across eight forecasting time scales. In addition, different combinations of base models are conducted to verify the advantages of the Stacking ensemble algorithm and the two base models, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Yisheng & Liu, Gang & Luo, Donghua & Bavirisetti, Durga Prasad & Xiao, Gang, 2023. "Multi-timescale photovoltaic power forecasting using an improved Stacking ensemble algorithm based LSTM-Informer model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:283:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223020637
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.128669
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223020637
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.128669?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Xiangjie & Liu, Yuanyan & Kong, Xiaobing & Ma, Lele & Besheer, Ahmad H. & Lee, Kwang Y., 2023. "Deep neural network for forecasting of photovoltaic power based on wavelet packet decomposition with similar day analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    2. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Zheng, Jianqin & Zhang, Haoran & Dai, Yuanhao & Wang, Bohong & Zheng, Taicheng & Liao, Qi & Liang, Yongtu & Zhang, Fengwei & Song, Xuan, 2020. "Time series prediction for output of multi-region solar power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    4. Ruijin Zhu & Weilin Guo & Xuejiao Gong, 2019. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Based on k -Fold Cross-Validation and an Ensemble Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Zhen, Hao & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Shi, Yucheng & Ji, Zhengsen & Xu, Xiaomin, 2021. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based on GA improved Bi-LSTM in microgrid without meteorological information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Ze Wu & Feifan Pan & Dandan Li & Hao He & Tiancheng Zhang & Shuyun Yang, 2022. "Prediction of Photovoltaic Power by the Informer Model Based on Convolutional Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Mitrentsis, Georgios & Lens, Hendrik, 2022. "An interpretable probabilistic model for short-term solar power forecasting using natural gradient boosting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    9. Qu, Jiaqi & Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan, 2021. "Day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting using attention-based CNN-LSTM neural network embedded with multiple relevant and target variables prediction pattern," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    10. Korkmaz, Deniz, 2021. "SolarNet: A hybrid reliable model based on convolutional neural network and variational mode decomposition for hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    11. VanDeventer, William & Jamei, Elmira & Thirunavukkarasu, Gokul Sidarth & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Soon, Tey Kok & Horan, Ben & Mekhilef, Saad & Stojcevski, Alex, 2019. "Short-term PV power forecasting using hybrid GASVM technique," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 367-379.
    12. Lee, Donghun & Kim, Kwanho, 2021. "PV power prediction in a peak zone using recurrent neural networks in the absence of future meteorological information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1098-1110.
    13. Li, Pengtao & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui & Yang, Shanlin, 2020. "A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    14. Peng, Tian & Zhang, Chu & Zhou, Jianzhong & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad, 2021. "An integrated framework of Bi-directional long-short term memory (BiLSTM) based on sine cosine algorithm for hourly solar radiation forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    15. Wang, Fei & Lu, Xiaoxing & Mei, Shengwei & Su, Ying & Zhen, Zhao & Zou, Zubing & Zhang, Xuemin & Yin, Rui & Duić, Neven & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Catalão, João P.S., 2022. "A satellite image data based ultra-short-term solar PV power forecasting method considering cloud information from neighboring plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    16. Mayer, Martin János & Gróf, Gyula, 2021. "Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    17. Leidy Gutiérrez & Julian Patiño & Eduardo Duque-Grisales, 2021. "A Comparison of the Performance of Supervised Learning Algorithms for Solar Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    18. Abdallah Abdellatif & Hamza Mubarak & Shameem Ahmad & Tofael Ahmed & G. M. Shafiullah & Ahmad Hammoudeh & Hamdan Abdellatef & M. M. Rahman & Hassan Muwafaq Gheni, 2022. "Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Generation with a Stacking Ensemble Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, September.
    19. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    20. Markovics, Dávid & Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Comparison of machine learning methods for photovoltaic power forecasting based on numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sarmas, Elissaios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Stamatopoulos, Efstathios & Marinakis, Vangelis & Doukas, Haris, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using meta-learning and numerical weather prediction independent Long Short-Term Memory models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    3. Huang, Congzhi & Yang, Mengyuan, 2023. "Memory long and short term time series network for ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    5. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    6. Yang, Mao & Zhao, Meng & Huang, Dawei & Su, Xin, 2022. "A composite framework for photovoltaic day-ahead power prediction based on dual clustering of dynamic time warping distance and deep autoencoder," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 659-673.
    7. liu, Qian & li, Yulin & jiang, Hang & chen, Yilin & zhang, Jiang, 2024. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on multiple mode decomposition and parallel bidirectional long short term combined with convolutional neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    8. Lai, Wenzhe & Zhen, Zhao & Wang, Fei & Fu, Wenjie & Wang, Junlong & Zhang, Xudong & Ren, Hui, 2024. "Sub-region division based short-term regional distributed PV power forecasting method considering spatio-temporal correlations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    9. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    10. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhou, Yilin & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Hour-ahead photovoltaic generation forecasting method based on machine learning and multi objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    11. Mirza, Adeel Feroz & Mansoor, Majad & Usman, Muhammad & Ling, Qiang, 2023. "A comprehensive approach for PV wind forecasting by using a hyperparameter tuned GCVCNN-MRNN deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    12. Cheng, Lilin & Zang, Haixiang & Wei, Zhinong & Zhang, Fengchun & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Evaluation of opaque deep-learning solar power forecast models towards power-grid applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 960-972.
    13. Khan, Zulfiqar Ahmad & Hussain, Tanveer & Baik, Sung Wook, 2023. "Dual stream network with attention mechanism for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    14. Khan, Zulfiqar Ahmad & Khan, Shabbir Ahmad & Hussain, Tanveer & Baik, Sung Wook, 2024. "DSPM: Dual sequence prediction model for efficient energy management in micro-grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    15. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    16. Yuan An & Kaikai Dang & Xiaoyu Shi & Rong Jia & Kai Zhang & Qiang Huang, 2021. "A Probabilistic Ensemble Prediction Method for PV Power in the Nonstationary Period," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Mayer, Martin János & Biró, Bence & Szücs, Botond & Aszódi, Attila, 2023. "Probabilistic modeling of future electricity systems with high renewable energy penetration using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    18. Rai, Amit & Shrivastava, Ashish & Jana, Kartick C., 2023. "Differential attention net: Multi-directed differential attention based hybrid deep learning model for solar power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    19. Paweł Piotrowski & Mirosław Parol & Piotr Kapler & Bartosz Fetliński, 2022. "Advanced Forecasting Methods of 5-Minute Power Generation in a PV System for Microgrid Operation Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
    20. Bo Gu & Xi Li & Fengliang Xu & Xiaopeng Yang & Fayi Wang & Pengzhan Wang, 2023. "Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis of Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Based on WT-CNN-BiLSTM-AM-GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-27, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:283:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223020637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.