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Uncertainty quantification on the effects of rain-induced erosion on annual energy production and performance of a Multi-MW wind turbine

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  • Papi, Francesco
  • Balduzzi, Francesco
  • Ferrara, Giovanni
  • Bianchini, Alessandro

Abstract

Wind turbine blade erosion has risen to the attention of researchers and industry lately in an effort to keep ageing wind farms productive. Although not new, erosion-related blade damage seems to be more severe in recent, particularly off-shore, installations. With the high blade-tip speeds of modern wind turbines, installation in rainy locations can cause significant damage. While all the players in the industry agree that a reduction on Annual Energy Production (AEP) has to be expected, its magnitude remains uncertain, with wide range of variability forecasted in published research. This work proposes a probabilistic framework to assess AEP reductions, allowing for a better understanding of the key mechanism that cause turbine power loss and for a better quantification of AEP losses. The method is tested on the DTU10MW reference case. Erosion-related uncertainties are estimated based on available literature data. Lift and drag coefficients of the airfoils are derived using CFD, and the entire wind turbine is simulated aero-servo-elastically using a Blade Element Momentum code. An arbitrary Polynomial Chaos method is used to estimate the uncertainties associated to key turbine figures due to the erosion inputs. Results show how AEP reductions, while still significant, are lower than most published literature indicates.

Suggested Citation

  • Papi, Francesco & Balduzzi, Francesco & Ferrara, Giovanni & Bianchini, Alessandro, 2021. "Uncertainty quantification on the effects of rain-induced erosion on annual energy production and performance of a Multi-MW wind turbine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 701-715.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:165:y:2021:i:p1:p:701-715
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.11.071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthias Schramm & Hamid Rahimi & Bernhard Stoevesandt & Kim Tangager, 2017. "The Influence of Eroded Blades on Wind Turbine Performance Using Numerical Simulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, September.
    2. Zanon, Alessandro & De Gennaro, Michele & Kühnelt, Helmut, 2018. "Wind energy harnessing of the NREL 5 MW reference wind turbine in icing conditions under different operational strategies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 760-772.
    3. Herring, Robbie & Dyer, Kirsten & Martin, Ffion & Ward, Carwyn, 2019. "The increasing importance of leading edge erosion and a review of existing protection solutions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Han, Woobeom & Kim, Jonghwa & Kim, Bumsuk, 2018. "Effects of contamination and erosion at the leading edge of blade tip airfoils on the annual energy production of wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 817-823.
    5. Oladyshkin, S. & Nowak, W., 2012. "Data-driven uncertainty quantification using the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 179-190.
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    1. Castorrini, Alessio & Ortolani, Andrea & Campobasso, M. Sergio, 2023. "Assessing the progression of wind turbine energy yield losses due to blade erosion by resolving damage geometries from lab tests and field observations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    2. Charlotte Bay Hasager & Flemming Vejen & Witold Robert Skrzypiński & Anna-Maria Tilg, 2021. "Rain Erosion Load and Its Effect on Leading-Edge Lifetime and Potential of Erosion-Safe Mode at Wind Turbines in the North Sea and Baltic Sea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Sergio Campobasso, M. & Castorrini, Alessio & Ortolani, Andrea & Minisci, Edmondo, 2023. "Probabilistic analysis of wind turbine performance degradation due to blade erosion accounting for uncertainty of damage geometry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Mishnaevsky, Leon & Hasager, Charlotte Bay & Bak, Christian & Tilg, Anna-Maria & Bech, Jakob I. & Doagou Rad, Saeed & Fæster, Søren, 2021. "Leading edge erosion of wind turbine blades: Understanding, prevention and protection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 953-969.
    5. Bech, Jakob Ilsted & Johansen, Nicolai Frost-Jensen & Madsen, Martin Bonde & Hannesdóttir, Ásta & Hasager, Charlotte Bay, 2022. "Experimental study on the effect of drop size in rain erosion test and on lifetime prediction of wind turbine blades," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 776-789.
    6. López, Javier Contreras & Kolios, Athanasios & Wang, Lin & Chiachio, Manuel, 2023. "A wind turbine blade leading edge rain erosion computational framework," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 131-141.

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