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A new finite mixture distribution and its expectation-maximization procedure for extreme wind speed characterization

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  • Bracale, Antonio
  • Carpinelli, Guido
  • De Falco, Pasquale

Abstract

Electric power systems are increasingly influenced by meteorological conditions due the wide penetration of renewable energy plants. In particular, wind speed plays a key role in transmission and distribution systems, as it determines wind power production and it influences line rating; also, extreme values of wind speed (EWS) affect mechanical reliability of wind towers and blades, causing loss of lifetime and damages. Several physical models provide EWS forecasts on global or local scales; however, such models require accurate initial and boundary conditions, and enormous computational effort. Statistical models are good alternatives to achieve accurate forecasts, but they require assumptions on the statistical distribution of EWS in parametric frameworks. This paper proposes an Inverse Burr - Inverse Weibull finite mixture distribution for EWS characterization and its Expectation-Maximization (EM) procedure for parameter estimation. The proposed mixture model is compared to commonly-used EWS distributions. Actual sites are considered to evaluate the goodness of fitting in different, real conditions; the EM procedure is compared to the maximum likelihood estimation. Sensitivity and error analyses are performed to individuate the main features of the proposed model; numerical results confirmed the suitability of the proposed model and of the EM estimation in the most of considered cases.

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  • Bracale, Antonio & Carpinelli, Guido & De Falco, Pasquale, 2017. "A new finite mixture distribution and its expectation-maximization procedure for extreme wind speed characterization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1366-1377.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:1366-1377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.07.012
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    2. Mohammad Rayati & Pasquale De Falco & Daniela Proto & Mokhtar Bozorg & Mauro Carpita, 2021. "Generation Data of Synthetic High Frequency Solar Irradiance for Data-Driven Decision-Making in Electrical Distribution Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Santos, Fábio Sandro dos & Nascimento, Kerolly Kedma Felix do & Jale, Jader da Silva & Stosic, Tatijana & Marinho, Manoel H.N. & Ferreira, Tiago A.E., 2021. "Mixture distribution and multifractal analysis applied to wind speed in the Brazilian Northeast region," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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