IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i8p1885-d344819.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Term Estimation of Wind Power by Probabilistic Forecast Using Genetic Programming

Author

Listed:
  • Mónica Borunda

    (CONACYT—Instituto Nacional de Electricidad y Energías Limpias, Cuernavaca, Morelos 62490, Mexico)

  • Katya Rodríguez-Vázquez

    (Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico)

  • Raul Garduno-Ramirez

    (Instituto Nacional de Electricidad y Energías Limpias, Cuernavaca, Morelos 62490, Mexico)

  • Javier de la Cruz-Soto

    (CONACYT—Instituto Nacional de Electricidad y Energías Limpias, Cuernavaca, Morelos 62490, Mexico)

  • Javier Antunez-Estrada

    (Instituto Nacional de Electricidad y Energías Limpias, Cuernavaca, Morelos 62490, Mexico)

  • Oscar A. Jaramillo

    (Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Temixco, Morelos 62580, Mexico)

Abstract

Given the imminent threats of climate change, it is urgent to boost the use of clean energy, being wind energy a potential candidate. Nowadays, deployment of wind turbines has become extremely important and long-term estimation of the produced power entails a challenge to achieve good prediction accuracy for site assessment, economic feasibility analysis, farm dispatch, and system operation. We present a method for long-term wind power forecasting using wind turbine properties, statistics, and genetic programming. First, due to the high degree of intermittency of wind speed, we characterize it with Weibull probability distributions and consider wind speed data of time intervals corresponding to prediction horizons of 30, 25, 20, 15 and 10 days ahead. Second, we perform the prediction of a wind speed distribution with genetic programming using the parameters of the Weibull distribution and other relevant meteorological variables. Third, the estimation of wind power is obtained by integrating the forecasted wind velocity distribution into the wind turbine power curve. To demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method, we present a case study for a location in Mexico with low wind speeds. Estimation results are promising when compared against real data, as shown by MAE and MAPE forecasting metrics.

Suggested Citation

  • Mónica Borunda & Katya Rodríguez-Vázquez & Raul Garduno-Ramirez & Javier de la Cruz-Soto & Javier Antunez-Estrada & Oscar A. Jaramillo, 2020. "Long-Term Estimation of Wind Power by Probabilistic Forecast Using Genetic Programming," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-24, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:8:p:1885-:d:344819
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/8/1885/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/8/1885/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xydas, Erotokritos & Qadrdan, Meysam & Marmaras, Charalampos & Cipcigan, Liana & Jenkins, Nick & Ameli, Hossein, 2017. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting and its application in the scheduling of gas-fired generators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 382-394.
    2. Camilo Carrillo & José Cidrás & Eloy Díaz-Dorado & Andrés Felipe Obando-Montaño, 2014. "An Approach to Determine the Weibull Parameters for Wind Energy Analysis: The Case of Galicia (Spain)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    3. Fyrippis, Ioannis & Axaopoulos, Petros J. & Panayiotou, Gregoris, 2010. "Wind energy potential assessment in Naxos Island, Greece," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 577-586, February.
    4. Monica Borunda & Javier de la Cruz & Raul Garduno-Ramirez & Ann Nicholson, 2020. "Technical assessment of small-scale wind power for residential use in Mexico: A Bayesian intelligence approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, March.
    5. Jaramillo, O.A & Saldaña, R & Miranda, U, 2004. "Wind power potential of Baja California Sur, México," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(13), pages 2087-2100.
    6. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    7. Jaramillo, O.A. & Borja, M.A., 2004. "Wind speed analysis in La Ventosa, Mexico: a bimodal probability distribution case," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1613-1630.
    8. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M Hashem Peseran & Yongcheol Shin, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Models: An Application to the UK Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics 00/4, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    9. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Abul Kalam Azad & Mohammad Golam Rasul & Talal Yusaf, 2014. "Statistical Diagnosis of the Best Weibull Methods for Wind Power Assessment for Agricultural Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-30, May.
    11. Wang, Jianzhou & Song, Yiliao & Liu, Feng & Hou, Ru, 2016. "Analysis and application of forecasting models in wind power integration: A review of multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 960-981.
    12. Cadenas, E. & Jaramillo, O.A. & Rivera, W., 2010. "Analysis and forecasting of wind velocity in chetumal, quintana roo, using the single exponential smoothing method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 925-930.
    13. Maarten Alders & Nico Keilman & Harri Cruijsen, 2007. "Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 33-69, March.
    14. Carta, J.A. & Ramírez, P. & Velázquez, S., 2009. "A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis: Case studies in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 933-955, June.
    15. Hernández-Escobedo, Q. & Manzano-Agugliaro, F. & Zapata-Sierra, A., 2010. "The wind power of Mexico," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2830-2840, December.
    16. Akdag, S.A. & Bagiorgas, H.S. & Mihalakakou, G., 2010. "Use of two-component Weibull mixtures in the analysis of wind speed in the Eastern Mediterranean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2566-2573, August.
    17. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Lopez & Ingrid Oliveros & Luis Torres & Lacides Ripoll & Jose Soto & Giovanny Salazar & Santiago Cantillo, 2020. "Prediction of Wind Speed Using Hybrid Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Gomez, William & Wang, Fu-Kwun & Lo, Shih-Che, 2024. "A hybrid approach based machine learning models in electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soukissian, Takvor H. & Karathanasi, Flora E., 2017. "On the selection of bivariate parametric models for wind data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 280-304.
    2. Allouhi, A. & Zamzoum, O. & Islam, M.R. & Saidur, R. & Kousksou, T. & Jamil, A. & Derouich, A., 2017. "Evaluation of wind energy potential in Morocco's coastal regions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 311-324.
    3. Mazzeo, Domenico & Oliveti, Giuseppe & Labonia, Ester, 2018. "Estimation of wind speed probability density function using a mixture of two truncated normal distributions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1260-1280.
    4. Chang, Tian Pau, 2011. "Estimation of wind energy potential using different probability density functions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1848-1856, May.
    5. Sergei Kolesnik & Yossi Rabinovitz & Michael Byalsky & Asher Yahalom & Alon Kuperman, 2023. "Assessment of Wind Speed Statistics in Samaria Region and Potential Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-35, May.
    6. Munir Ali Elfarra & Mustafa Kaya, 2018. "Comparison of Optimum Spline-Based Probability Density Functions to Parametric Distributions for the Wind Speed Data in Terms of Annual Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, November.
    7. Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia & Li, Qiwei & Ma, Xuejiao, 2018. "Comparison of seven methods for determining the optimal statistical distribution parameters: A case study of wind energy assessment in the large-scale wind farms of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 432-448.
    8. Chang, Tian-Pau & Ko, Hong-Hsi & Liu, Feng-Jiao & Chen, Pai-Hsun & Chang, Ying-Pin & Liang, Ying-Hsin & Jang, Horng-Yuan & Lin, Tsung-Chi & Chen, Yi-Hwa, 2012. "Fractal dimension of wind speed time series," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 742-749.
    9. Dongbum Kang & Kyungnam Ko & Jongchul Huh, 2018. "Comparative Study of Different Methods for Estimating Weibull Parameters: A Case Study on Jeju Island, South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, February.
    10. Chang, Tian-Pau & Liu, Feng-Jiao & Ko, Hong-Hsi & Cheng, Shih-Ping & Sun, Li-Chung & Kuo, Shye-Chorng, 2014. "Comparative analysis on power curve models of wind turbine generator in estimating capacity factor," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 88-95.
    11. Jiang, Haiyan & Wang, Jianzhou & Wu, Jie & Geng, Wei, 2017. "Comparison of numerical methods and metaheuristic optimization algorithms for estimating parameters for wind energy potential assessment in low wind regions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1199-1217.
    12. Arslan, Talha & Bulut, Y. Murat & Altın Yavuz, Arzu, 2014. "Comparative study of numerical methods for determining Weibull parameters for wind energy potential," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 820-825.
    13. Emilio Gómez-Lázaro & María C. Bueso & Mathieu Kessler & Sergio Martín-Martínez & Jie Zhang & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Angel Molina-García, 2016. "Probability Density Function Characterization for Aggregated Large-Scale Wind Power Based on Weibull Mixtures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    14. Hu, Qinghua & Wang, Yun & Xie, Zongxia & Zhu, Pengfei & Yu, Daren, 2016. "On estimating uncertainty of wind energy with mixture of distributions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 935-962.
    15. Usta, Ilhan, 2016. "An innovative estimation method regarding Weibull parameters for wind energy applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 301-314.
    16. Soukissian, Takvor, 2013. "Use of multi-parameter distributions for offshore wind speed modeling: The Johnson SB distribution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 982-1000.
    17. Jin, Jingliang & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Miao, Zhuang, 2014. "Environmental/economic power dispatch with wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 234-242.
    18. Dong, Yao & Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, He & Shi, Xiaomeng, 2013. "Intelligent optimized wind resource assessment and wind turbines selection in Huitengxile of Inner Mongolia, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 239-253.
    19. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2019. "Wind speed distribution selection – A review of recent development and progress," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Pishgar-Komleh, S.H. & Keyhani, A. & Sefeedpari, P., 2015. "Wind speed and power density analysis based on Weibull and Rayleigh distributions (a case study: Firouzkooh county of Iran)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 313-322.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:8:p:1885-:d:344819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.