IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i12p3090-d371877.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme Quantiles Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts and Application on Network Operation

Author

Listed:
  • Romain Dupin

    (MINES ParisTech, PSL University, Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE), CS 10207 rue Claude Daunesse, Cedex, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France)

  • Laura Cavalcante

    (INESC TEC, Centre for Power and Energy Systems, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Ricardo J. Bessa

    (INESC TEC, Centre for Power and Energy Systems, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Georges Kariniotakis

    (MINES ParisTech, PSL University, Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE), CS 10207 rue Claude Daunesse, Cedex, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France)

  • Andrea Michiorri

    (MINES ParisTech, PSL University, Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE), CS 10207 rue Claude Daunesse, Cedex, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France)

Abstract

This paper presents a study on dynamic line rating (DLR) forecasting procedure aimed at developing a new methodology able to forecast future ampacity values for rare and extreme events. This is motivated by the belief that to apply DLR network operators must be able to forecast their values and this must be based on conservative approaches able to guarantee the safe operation of the network. The proposed methodology can be summarised as follows: firstly, probabilistic forecasts of conductors’ ampacity are calculated with a non-parametric model, secondly, the lower part of the distribution is replaced with a new distribution calculated with a parametric model. The paper presents also an evaluation of the proposed methodology in network operation, suggesting an application method and highlighting the advantages. The proposed forecasting methodology delivers a high improvement of the lowest quantiles’ reliability, allowing perfect reliability for the 1% quantile and a reduction of roughly 75% in overconfidence for the 0.1% quantile.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Dupin & Laura Cavalcante & Ricardo J. Bessa & Georges Kariniotakis & Andrea Michiorri, 2020. "Extreme Quantiles Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts and Application on Network Operation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:12:p:3090-:d:371877
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/12/3090/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/12/3090/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banerjee, Binayak & Jayaweera, Dilan & Islam, Syed, 2015. "Risk constrained short-term scheduling with dynamic line ratings for increased penetration of wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1139-1146.
    2. Gallego-Castillo, Cristobal & Bessa, Ricardo & Cavalcante, Laura & Lopez-Garcia, Oscar, 2016. "On-line quantile regression in the RKHS (Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space) for operational probabilistic forecasting of wind power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 355-365.
    3. Michiorri, Andrea & Nguyen, Huu-Minh & Alessandrini, Stefano & Bremnes, John Bjørnar & Dierer, Silke & Ferrero, Enrico & Nygaard, Bjørn-Egil & Pinson, Pierre & Thomaidis, Nikolaos & Uski, Sanna, 2015. "Forecasting for dynamic line rating," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1713-1730.
    4. Tryggvi Jónsson & Pierre Pinson & Henrik Madsen & Henrik Aalborg Nielsen, 2014. "Predictive Densities for Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Using Time-Adaptive Quantile Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    6. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    2. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2018. "Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-266.
    3. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Florian Ziel & Kevin Berk, 2019. "Multivariate Forecasting Evaluation: On Sensitive and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules," Papers 1910.07325, arXiv.org.
    6. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    7. Gianfreda, Angelica & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2020. "Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 974-986.
    8. Ioannis K. Bazionis & Markos A. Kousounadis-Knudsen & Theodoros Konstantinou & Pavlos S. Georgilakis, 2021. "A WT-LUBE-PSO-CWC Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting Model for Prediction Interval Construction and Seasonality Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-23, September.
    9. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    10. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1365-1385.
    11. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
    12. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
    13. González-Sopeña, J.M. & Pakrashi, V. & Ghosh, B., 2021. "An overview of performance evaluation metrics for short-term statistical wind power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Berrisch, Jonathan & Ziel, Florian, 2023. "CRPS learning," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    15. Taillardat, Maxime & Fougères, Anne-Laure & Naveau, Philippe & de Fondeville, Raphaël, 2023. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extremes using continuous ranked probability score distributions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1448-1459.
    16. Antonio Bracale & Guido Carpinelli & Pasquale De Falco, 2019. "Developing and Comparing Different Strategies for Combining Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Forecasts in an Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    18. He, Yaoyao & Cao, Chaojin & Wang, Shuo & Fu, Hong, 2022. "Nonparametric probabilistic load forecasting based on quantile combination in electrical power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    19. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ziel, Florian, 2022. "Anticipating special events in Emergency Department forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1197-1213.
    20. Wang, Wei & Feng, Bin & Huang, Gang & Guo, Chuangxin & Liao, Wenlong & Chen, Zhe, 2023. "Conformal asymmetric multi-quantile generative transformer for day-ahead wind power interval prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:12:p:3090-:d:371877. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.