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Epidemic shocks and housing price responses: Evidence from China's urban residential communities

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  • Liu, Yanan
  • Tang, Yugang

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the real estate market using a community-level panel dataset of 34 major cities in China. We find that the average housing price in communities with COVID-19 infections decreases by approximately 1.3% compared to communities with no confirmed cases. The economic implication is that homebuyers are willing to pay a premium equivalent to approximately 1.3% of the average housing price to avoid health risks. The response of real estate markets to epidemic shocks is heterogeneous in community and city characteristics. Dynamic analysis shows that the declines in home prices, transaction volumes, and rents are all short-lived, returning to their original development paths a few months after the epidemic shock. Public interventions such as community closures and quarantines may have contributed to the rapid recovery of the housing market, reducing the volatility of housing assets in the household sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Yanan & Tang, Yugang, 2021. "Epidemic shocks and housing price responses: Evidence from China's urban residential communities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:89:y:2021:i:c:s0166046221000557
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103695
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    Cited by:

    1. Shian Zeng & Chengdong Yi, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market at the epicenter of the outbreak in China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Huang, Naqun & Pang, Jindong & Yang, Yanmin, 2023. "JUE Insight: COVID-19 and household preference for urban density in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Meng Yuan & Hongjuan Wu, 2024. "Positive or Negative: The Heterogeneities in the Effects of Urban Regeneration on Surrounding Economic Vitality—From the Perspective of Housing Price," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-27, May.
    4. Eduard Hromada, 2021. "Regression analysis of selected technical and economic parameters of the residential market in the Czech Republic," Proceedings of Business and Management Conferences 12713384, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    5. Batalha, Mafalda & Gonçalves, Duarte & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "The virus that devastated tourism: The impact of covid-19 on the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Walter D'Lima & Luis Arturo Lopez & Archana Pradhan, 2022. "COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-339, June.
    7. van Vuuren, Aico, 2023. "Is there a diminishing willingness to pay for consumption amenities as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Housing price; Rental price; Negative externality; Public intervention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods

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