IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v2y2022i6d10.1007_s43546-022-00225-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market at the epicenter of the outbreak in China

Author

Listed:
  • Shian Zeng

    (Central University of Finance and Economics, Shahe University Park)

  • Chengdong Yi

    (Central University of Finance and Economics, Shahe University Park)

Abstract

The outbreak of the COVID-19 in January 2020 has had a profound impact on the global economy, so it is important to study the impact of the pandemic on the housing market. To investigate the impact of the pandemic on the housing market and the response of the housing market, this paper first uses the hedonic price model to compile the second-hand housing price index in Wuhan and its neighboring capital cities and then uses the difference-in-difference (DID) model to conduct a comprehensive study on new commercial housing and second-hand housing market. In addition, this paper also uses the VAR model to explore the housing market’s response to the epidemic situation. The results show that the negative impact of the pandemic on the housing market is mainly reflected in the volume and area of housing transactions, with little impact on housing prices. Second, the reported cases of COVID-19 have a negative impact on the housing market in the short term, which gradually weakens with time and disappears after three weeks. This paper’s findings indicate that the epidemic’s impact on the housing market is mainly due to the real estate enterprises stopping selling houses and local governments implementing home quarantine measures, which affect normal housing transactions. However, the COVID-19 pandemic did not greatly negatively impact consumers’ demand and confidence in buying houses, so the house prices remained stable overall.

Suggested Citation

  • Shian Zeng & Chengdong Yi, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market at the epicenter of the outbreak in China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:2:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00225-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-022-00225-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-022-00225-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-022-00225-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ka Shing Cheung & Chung Yim Yiu & Chuyi Xiong, 2021. "Housing Market in the Time of Pandemic: A Price Gradient Analysis from the COVID-19 Epicentre in China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    2. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    3. Francke, Marc & Korevaar, Matthijs, 2021. "Housing markets in a pandemic: Evidence from historical outbreaks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Qian, Xianhang & Qiu, Shanyun & Zhang, Guangli, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on housing price: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    5. Wong, Grace, 2008. "Has SARS infected the property market Evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 74-95, January.
    6. David M. Zimmer, 2012. "The Role of Copulas in the Housing Crisis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 607-620, May.
    7. Chuanhao Tian & Xintian Peng & Xiang Zhang, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Urban Resilience and Real Estate Prices: The Experience of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Deng, Guoying & Gan, Li & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2015. "Do natural disasters cause an excessive fear of heights? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 79-89.
    9. Liu, Yanan & Tang, Yugang, 2021. "Epidemic shocks and housing price responses: Evidence from China's urban residential communities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Yen Goh & Greg Costello & Greg Schwann, 2012. "Accuracy and Robustness of House Price Index Methods," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 643-666.
    11. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    12. Jonathan H. Mark & Michael A. Goldberg, 1984. "Alternative Housing Price Indices: An Evaluation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 30-49, March.
    13. Anson T. Y. Ho & Kim P. Huynh & David T. Jacho‐Chávez, 2016. "Flexible Estimation of Copulas: An Application to the US Housing Crisis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 603-610, April.
    14. Vincenzo Del Giudice & Pierfrancesco De Paola & Francesco Paolo Del Giudice, 2020. "COVID-19 Infects Real Estate Markets: Short and Mid-Run Effects on Housing Prices in Campania Region (Italy)," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Attila Ambrus & Erica Field & Robert Gonzalez, 2020. "Loss in the Time of Cholera: Long-Run Impact of a Disease Epidemic on the Urban Landscape," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(2), pages 475-525, February.
    16. Yaoxuan Huang & Tsz Leung Yip & Cong Liang, 2020. "Risk Perception and Property Value: Evidence from Tianjin Port Explosion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yaşar Reha Z. & Bulut Erdem, 2023. "Why Did Housing Prices Rise to a Record Level in Turkey? An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 1-10, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Bingbing, 2022. "Housing market volatility under COVID-19: Diverging response of demand in luxury and low-end housing markets," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Chuanhao Tian & Xintian Peng & Xiang Zhang, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Urban Resilience and Real Estate Prices: The Experience of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Walter D'Lima & Luis Arturo Lopez & Archana Pradhan, 2022. "COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-339, June.
    4. Xinba Li & Chihwa Kao, 2022. "Spatial Analysis and Modeling of the Housing Value Changes in the U.S. during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Ka Shing Cheung & Chung Yim Yiu & Chuyi Xiong, 2021. "Housing Market in the Time of Pandemic: A Price Gradient Analysis from the COVID-19 Epicentre in China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Arturas Kaklauskas & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Natalija Lepkova & Saulius Raslanas & Kestutis Dauksys & Ingrida Vetloviene & Ieva Ubarte, 2021. "Sustainable Construction Investment, Real Estate Development, and COVID-19: A Review of Literature in the Field," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-42, July.
    7. Nadia Balemi & Roland Füss & Alois Weigand, 2021. "COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 495-513, December.
    8. Xinba Li & Chuanrong Zhang, 2021. "Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Affect Housing Prices Evenly in the U.S.?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-28, November.
    9. Sandro Heiniger & Winfried Koeniger & Michael Lechner, 2022. "The Heterogeneous Response of Real Estate Asset Prices to a Global Shock," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-86, Swiss Finance Institute.
    10. Bertrand Achou & Hippolyte d'Albis & Eleni Iliopulos, 2021. "Real Estate and Rental Markets during Covid Times," Documents de recherche 21-02, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    11. Francke, Marc & Korevaar, Matthijs, 2021. "Housing markets in a pandemic: Evidence from historical outbreaks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Katafuchi, Yuya, 2021. "Residential land price fluctuations caused by behavioral changes on work-from-home based on COVID-19," MPRA Paper 109310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bertrand Achou & Hippolyte d'Albis & Eleni Iliopulo, 2021. "House prices and rents: a reappraisal," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 6, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    14. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    15. Ming Li & Guojun Zhang & Yunliang Chen & Chunshan Zhou, 2019. "Evaluation of Residential Housing Prices on the Internet: Data Pitfalls," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, February.
    16. Stephen Malpezzi, 2023. "Housing affordability and responses during times of stress: A preliminary look during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 9-40, January.
    17. Koetter, Michael & Noth, Felix, 2022. "European real estate markets during the pandemic: Is COVID-19 also a case for house price concerns?," IWH Policy Notes 3/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    18. Mateusz Tomal & Marco Helbich, 2022. "The private rental housing market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: A submarket analysis in Cracow, Poland," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 49(6), pages 1646-1662, July.
    19. Raul-Tomas Mora-Garcia & Maria-Francisca Cespedes-Lopez & V. Raul Perez-Sanchez, 2022. "Housing Price Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms in COVID-19 Times," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-32, November.
    20. Liu, Yanan & Tang, Yugang, 2021. "Epidemic shocks and housing price responses: Evidence from China's urban residential communities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; New commercial housing; Second-hand housing; Price index; VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:2:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00225-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.