IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v94y2009i5p964-968.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the distribution type of uncertain inputs for probabilistic assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Ju, Shin-Jon

Abstract

The effect of distribution type of uncertain inputs on the probabilistic assessment result of a system is illustrated. The tested systems include linear function, positive exponential function, negative exponential function, and reciprocal function, and a proposed corrosion mechanism for radwaste package in addition. The four types of distributions analyzed are uniform (U), log-uniform (LU), normal (N), and log-normal (LN) distributions. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was applied to take samples from the uncertain inputs, and the data sets obtained from the said samples were uncorrelatedly arranged before computation. The Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) was also applied to calculate the sensitivity index of the four distributions. Based on the safety assessment point of view, the results of this paper provide a rationale for the choice of the distribution type between U and LU distributions when the available data points are scarce. The result of the FAST indicates that the sensitivity of the four distributions is, in the order, SU>SLU>SN>SLN. This suggests a need to carefully identify whether the uncertain inputs are of U distribution for the purpose of sensitivity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ju, Shin-Jon, 2009. "On the distribution type of uncertain inputs for probabilistic assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(5), pages 964-968.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:5:p:964-968
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832008002640
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2008.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sallaberry, C.J. & Helton, J.C. & Hora, S.C., 2008. "Extension of Latin hypercube samples with correlated variables," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 1047-1059.
    2. Saltelli, Andrea & Bolado, Ricardo, 1998. "An alternative way to compute Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST)," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 445-460, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. H. Christopher Frey & Sumeet R. Patil, 2002. "Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 553-578, June.
    2. Janssen, Hans, 2013. "Monte-Carlo based uncertainty analysis: Sampling efficiency and sampling convergence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 123-132.
    3. Hou, Tianfeng & Nuyens, Dirk & Roels, Staf & Janssen, Hans, 2019. "Quasi-Monte Carlo based uncertainty analysis: Sampling efficiency and error estimation in engineering applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Vikram V. Garg & Roy H. Stogner, 2017. "Hierarchical Latin Hypercube Sampling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 673-682, April.
    5. Brown, S. & Beck, J. & Mahgerefteh, H. & Fraga, E.S., 2013. "Global sensitivity analysis of the impact of impurities on CO2 pipeline failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 43-54.
    6. Bui, Ha & Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Pence, Justin & Reihani, Seyed & Kee, Ernie & Mohaghegh, Zahra, 2019. "An algorithm for enhancing spatiotemporal resolution of probabilistic risk assessment to address emergent safety concerns in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 405-428.
    7. Messan, Komi & Rodriguez Messan, Marisabel & Chen, Jun & DeGrandi-Hoffman, Gloria & Kang, Yun, 2021. "Population dynamics of Varroa mite and honeybee: Effects of parasitism with age structure and seasonality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    8. Zio, E. & Pedroni, N., 2009. "Functional failure analysis of a thermal–hydraulic passive system by means of Line Sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1764-1781.
    9. Kieran Alden & Mark Read & Jon Timmis & Paul S Andrews & Henrique Veiga-Fernandes & Mark Coles, 2013. "Spartan: A Comprehensive Tool for Understanding Uncertainty in Simulations of Biological Systems," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, February.
    10. Jin Xu & Jiajie Chen & Peter Z. G. Qian, 2015. "Sequentially Refined Latin Hypercube Designs: Reusing Every Point," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1696-1706, December.
    11. Shields, Michael D. & Teferra, Kirubel & Hapij, Adam & Daddazio, Raymond P., 2015. "Refined Stratified Sampling for efficient Monte Carlo based uncertainty quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 310-325.
    12. Yongkai An & Wenxi Lu & Weiguo Cheng, 2015. "Surrogate Model Application to the Identification of Optimal Groundwater Exploitation Scheme Based on Regression Kriging Method—A Case Study of Western Jilin Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, July.
    13. Wang, Fugui & Mladenoff, David J. & Forrester, Jodi A. & Keough, Cindy & Parton, William J., 2013. "Global sensitivity analysis of a modified CENTURY model for simulating impacts of harvesting fine woody biomass for bioenergy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 259(C), pages 16-23.
    14. Spiessl, S.M. & Becker, D.-A. & Rübel, A., 2012. "EFAST analysis applied to a PA model for a generic HLW repository in clay," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 190-204.
    15. Cariboni, J. & Gatelli, D. & Liska, R. & Saltelli, A., 2007. "The role of sensitivity analysis in ecological modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 167-182.
    16. Blatman, Géraud & Sudret, Bruno, 2010. "Efficient computation of global sensitivity indices using sparse polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1216-1229.
    17. López-Benito, Alfredo & Bolado-Lavín, Ricardo, 2017. "A case study on global sensitivity analysis with dependent inputs: The natural gas transmission model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 11-21.
    18. Vuillod, Bruno & Montemurro, Marco & Panettieri, Enrico & Hallo, Ludovic, 2023. "A comparison between Sobol’s indices and Shapley’s effect for global sensitivity analysis of systems with independent input variables," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    19. Enrico Fabrizio & Valentina Monetti, 2015. "Methodologies and Advancements in the Calibration of Building Energy Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-27, March.
    20. Rahn, Eric & Vaast, Philippe & Läderach, Peter & van Asten, Piet & Jassogne, Laurence & Ghazoul, Jaboury, 2018. "Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 76-89.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:5:p:964-968. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.