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Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences

Author

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  • Buijs, F.A.
  • Hall, J.W.
  • Sayers, P.B.
  • Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

Abstract

This paper describes the underlying theory and a practical process for establishing time-dependent reliability models for components in a realistic and complex flood defence system. Though time-dependent reliability models have been applied frequently in, for example, the offshore, structural safety and nuclear industry, application in the safety-critical field of flood defence has to date been limited. The modelling methodology involves identifying relevant variables and processes, characterisation of those processes in appropriate mathematical terms, numerical implementation, parameter estimation and prediction. A combination of stochastic, hierarchical and parametric processes is employed. The approach is demonstrated for selected deterioration mechanisms in the context of a flood defence system. The paper demonstrates that this structured methodology enables the definition of credible statistical models for time-dependence of flood defences in data scarce situations. In the application of those models one of the main findings is that the time variability in the deterioration process tends to be governed the time-dependence of one or a small number of critical attributes. It is demonstrated how the need for further data collection depends upon the relevance of the time-dependence in the performance of the flood defence system.

Suggested Citation

  • Buijs, F.A. & Hall, J.W. & Sayers, P.B. & Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2009. "Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(12), pages 1942-1953.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:12:p:1942-1953
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.06.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Shapiro & Jos Berge, 2002. "Statistical inference of minimum rank factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 79-94, March.
    2. van Noortwijk, Jan M. & Cooke, Roger M. & Kok, Matthijs, 1995. "A Bayesian failure model based on isotropic deterioration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 270-282, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. den Heijer, Frank & Kok, Matthijs, 2024. "Risk-based portfolio planning of dike reinforcements," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Anvarifar, Fatemeh & Voorendt, Mark Z. & Zevenbergen, Chris & Thissen, Wil, 2017. "An application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to risk analysis of multifunctional flood defences in the Netherlands," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 130-141.
    3. Chen, Hua-Peng & Mehrabani, Mehrdad Bahari, 2019. "Reliability analysis and optimum maintenance of coastal flood defences using probabilistic deterioration modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 163-174.
    4. Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Morales-Torres, Adrián & Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara, 2020. "Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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