IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-01673338.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rational expectations and stochastic systems

Author

Listed:
  • Jørgen Vitting Andersen

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Roy Cerqueti

    (UNIMC - Università degli Studi di Macerata = University of Macerata)

  • Jessica Riccioni

    (UNIMC - Università degli Studi di Macerata = University of Macerata)

Abstract

This paper proposes a stochastic model for describing rational expectations. The context is systemic risk, with interconnected components of a unified system. The evolution dynamics leading to the failure of the system is explored either under a theoretical point of view as well as through an extensive scenario analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2019. "Rational expectations and stochastic systems," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01673338, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01673338
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01673338v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01673338v2/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Azaron, Amir & Katagiri, Hideki & Sakawa, Masatoshi & Modarres, Mohammad, 2005. "Reliability function of a class of time-dependent systems with standby redundancy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 378-386, July.
    2. Çekyay, B. & Özekici, S., 2010. "Mean time to failure and availability of semi-Markov missions with maximal repair," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1442-1454, December.
    3. Eryilmaz, Serkan, 2012. "On the mean residual life of a k-out-of-n:G system with a single cold standby component," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 273-277.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Aktekin, Tevfik & Caglar, Toros, 2013. "Imperfect debugging in software reliability: A Bayesian approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 112-121.
    6. Navarro, Jorge & Ruiz, Jose M. & Sandoval, Carlos J., 2005. "A note on comparisons among coherent systems with dependent components using signatures," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 179-185, April.
    7. Becker, Otwin & Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2007. "Heuristic modeling of expectation formation in a complex experimental information environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 975-985, January.
    8. Antonio Di Crescenzo & Franco Pellerey, 2011. "Improving series and parallel systems through mixtures of duplicated dependent components," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(5), pages 411-418, August.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    10. Jorge Navarro & Fabio Spizzichino, 2010. "Comparisons of series and parallel systems with components sharing the same copula," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 775-791, November.
    11. Zarezadeh, S. & Mohammadi, L. & Balakrishnan, N., 2018. "On the joint signature of several coherent systems with some shared components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 1092-1100.
    12. Wang, Yong & Li, Lin & Huang, Shuhong & Chang, Qing, 2012. "Reliability and covariance estimation of weighted k-out-of-n multi-state systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 138-147.
    13. Zhang, Nan & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne, 2019. "Reliability-based measures and prognostic analysis of a K-out-of-N system in a random environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1120-1131.
    14. van Noortwijk, Jan M. & Cooke, Roger M. & Kok, Matthijs, 1995. "A Bayesian failure model based on isotropic deterioration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 270-282, April.
    15. Kim, Michael Jong & Jiang, Rui & Makis, Viliam & Lee, Chi-Guhn, 2011. "Optimal Bayesian fault prediction scheme for a partially observable system subject to random failure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 331-339, October.
    16. Atıcı, Ferhan M. & Ekiz, Funda & Lebedinsky, Alex, 2014. "Cagan type rational expectation model on complex discrete time domains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 148-151.
    17. Parsa, Motahareh & Di Crescenzo, Antonio & Jabbari, Hadi, 2018. "Analysis of reliability systems via Gini-type index," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 340-353.
    18. Navarro, Jorge & Pellerey, Franco & Di Crescenzo, Antonio, 2015. "Orderings of coherent systems with randomized dependent components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(1), pages 127-139.
    19. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Aliee, Hananeh & Glaß, Michael & Teich, Jürgen, 2016. "A new time-independent reliability importance measure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 427-442.
    20. Gupta, Nitin & Misra, Neeraj & Kumar, Somesh, 2015. "Stochastic comparisons of residual lifetimes and inactivity times of coherent systems with dependent identically distributed components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(2), pages 425-430.
    21. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorgen-Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 326(1), pages 295-316, July.
    2. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03634370, HAL.
    3. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2023. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Post-Print hal-03634370, HAL.
    4. Jorgen Vitting Andersen & Roy Cerqueti & Jessica Riccioni, 2021. "Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems," Papers 2112.10672, arXiv.org.
    5. Roy Cerqueti, 2022. "A new concept of reliability system and applications in finance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(1), pages 45-64, May.
    6. Parsa, Motahareh & Di Crescenzo, Antonio & Jabbari, Hadi, 2018. "Analysis of reliability systems via Gini-type index," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 340-353.
    7. Zarezadeh, S. & Mohammadi, L. & Balakrishnan, N., 2018. "On the joint signature of several coherent systems with some shared components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 1092-1100.
    8. Zhang, Nan & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne, 2019. "Reliability-based measures and prognostic analysis of a K-out-of-N system in a random environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1120-1131.
    9. Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "How Did Financial-Crisis-Based Criticisms of Market Efficiency Get It So Wrong?," Working Papers CEB 09-048.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Jorge Navarro, 2018. "Distribution-free comparisons of residual lifetimes of coherent systems based on copula properties," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 781-800, June.
    11. Chen Li & Xiaohu Li, 2020. "Weak aging properties for coherent systems with statistically dependent component lifetimes," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(7), pages 559-572, October.
    12. Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Market Efficiency and Crises:Don’t Throw the Baby out with the Bathwater," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 20-26, November-.
    13. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1986. "Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 831-842, September.
    14. Gupta, Nitin & Misra, Neeraj & Kumar, Somesh, 2015. "Stochastic comparisons of residual lifetimes and inactivity times of coherent systems with dependent identically distributed components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(2), pages 425-430.
    15. Zhengcheng Zhang & N. Balakrishnan, 2016. "Representations of the inactivity time for coherent systems with heterogeneous components and some ordered properties," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 79(1), pages 113-126, January.
    16. Kollmann, Robert, 2020. "Rational Bubbles in Non-Linear Business Cycle Models: Closed and Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 14367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Fouejieu, Armand & Popescu, Alexandra & Villieu, Patrick, 2019. "Trade-offs between macroeconomic and financial stability objectives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 621-639.
    18. M. Salehi & Z. Shishebor & M. Asadi, 2019. "On the reliability modeling of weighted k-out-of-n systems with randomly chosen components," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 82(5), pages 589-605, July.
    19. Giovannini, Alberto & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1989. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics with Sticky Prices: The Deutsche Mark, 1974-1982," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 169-178, April.
    20. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk; reliability; stochastic system; Rational expectation; finance; evolutionary economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01673338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.