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A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application

Author

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  • He, Xuhong
  • Wang, Yao
  • Shen, Zupei
  • Huang, Xiangrui

Abstract

Cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM), with a sound cognitive model and framework with an emphasis of the whole characteristics of context, is a representative method of the so-called second generation human reliability analysis (HRA) methods and can be used in both retrospective and prospective analysis. For prospective analysis in the context of PSA/HRA, the need of CREAM to provide the results in quantitative terms is seemingly unavoidable. One remaining problem of CREAM as HRA is how to provide an easily practicable process to get the numeric results. This paper provides a simplified CREAM prospective quantification process including the basic method and extended method and their applications in the SGTR event of Qinshan 1 NPP. A comparison is made between the CREAM and THERP in the quantification and a data collection system is proposed to provide a more validated data source for future application of CREAM method.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Xuhong & Wang, Yao & Shen, Zupei & Huang, Xiangrui, 2008. "A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 298-306.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:2:p:298-306
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.10.026
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bing Wu & Xinping Yan & Yang Wang & C. Guedes Soares, 2017. "An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1936-1957, October.
    2. Qin, Hao & Stewart, Mark G., 2020. "Construction defects and wind fragility assessment for metal roof failure: A Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Montewka, Jakub & Goerlandt, Floris & Innes-Jones, Gemma & Owen, Douglas & Hifi, Yasmine & Puisa, Romanas, 2017. "Enhancing human performance in ship operations by modifying global design factors at the design stage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 283-300.
    5. Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Akyuz, Emre & Arslan, Ozcan, 2022. "An extended HEART Dempster–Shafer evidence theory approach to assess human reliability for the gas freeing process on chemical tankers," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    6. Bolton, Matthew L. & Zheng, Xi & Kang, Eunsuk, 2021. "A formal method for including the probability of erroneous human task behavior in system analyses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    7. Bedford, Tim & Bayley, Clare & Revie, Matthew, 2013. "Screening, sensitivity, and uncertainty for the CREAM method of Human Reliability Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 100-110.
    8. Nan, Cen & Eusgeld, Irene & Kröger, Wolfgang, 2013. "Analyzing vulnerabilities between SCADA system and SUC due to interdependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 76-93.
    9. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    10. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Zhang, Di, 2022. "A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    11. Kayisoglu, Gizem & Gunes, Bunyamin & Besikci, Elif Bal, 2022. "SLIM based methodology for human error probability calculation of bunker spills in maritime operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    12. Akide Cerci Ogmen & Ismail Ekmekci, 2022. "HEART Hybrid Methods for Assessing Human Reliability in Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Sun, Zhiqiang & Li, Zhengyi & Gong, Erling & Xie, Hongwei, 2012. "Estimating Human Error Probability using a modified CREAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 28-32.
    14. Ren, Xin & Nane, Gabriela F. & Terwel, Karel C. & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M., 2024. "Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

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    Keywords

    CREAM quantification; CPC questionnaires;

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