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Construction defects and wind fragility assessment for metal roof failure: A Bayesian approach

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  • Qin, Hao
  • Stewart, Mark G.

Abstract

Post-damage observations reveal that construction error is one of the major contributors to roof damage for houses subjected to extreme winds. In this study, a Bayesian approach was developed to probabilistically quantify the construction defect rates in roof connections, which enables a systematic integration of expert judgement, human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques and limited construction defect data. The reductions of uplift capacities for defective roof connections were also probabilistically modelled based on experimental evidence and engineering judgement. The developed construction defect model was incorporated in a reliability-based fragility method to assess the wind damage to metal roof cladding and timber roof trusses for contemporary houses in non-cyclonic regions of Australia. It was found that, the effects of construction defects are significant for the predicted roof cladding fragility, whereas for roof truss fragility, such effects are lower.

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  • Qin, Hao & Stewart, Mark G., 2020. "Construction defects and wind fragility assessment for metal roof failure: A Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:197:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019304612
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jerez, D.J. & Jensen, H.A. & Beer, M., 2022. "An effective implementation of reliability methods for Bayesian model updating of structural dynamic models with multiple uncertain parameters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Zhou, Jian-Lan & Lei, Yi, 2020. "A slim integrated with empirical study and network analysis for human error assessment in the railway driving process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Zheng, Xiao-Wei & Li, Hong-Nan & Gardoni, Paolo, 2023. "Hybrid Bayesian-Copula-based risk assessment for tall buildings subject to wind loads considering various uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    4. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Zhang, Dongkai & Xie, Chenlin & Chen, Ke & Kou, Lei, 2023. "Data-driven lightning-related failure risk prediction of overhead contact lines based on Bayesian network with spatiotemporal fragility model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Ceferino, Luis & Lin, Ning & Xi, Dazhi, 2023. "Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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