IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v210y2021ics0951832021000636.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparing methods of randomizing Sobol′ sequences for improving uncertainty of metrics in variance-based global sensitivity estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, Xifu
  • Croke, Barry
  • Roberts, Stephen
  • Jakeman, Anthony

Abstract

This paper introduces an alternative way of randomizing Sobol′ sequences, called the Column Shift method, for reconstructing replicates to improve estimation of the uncertainty in sensitivity indices. The Column Shift method provides reliable results when applied to variance-based sensitivity analysis of the V-function, with much higher accuracy than commonly used randomization methods in most circumstances. It also addresses the error spikes caused by determinism within the Sobol′ sequence. The Column Shift method is compared with other popular randomization methods for the Sobol′ sequence, and it is shown to be the most consistent of those tested. In addition, the inclusion of standard error in the mean of sensitivity indices in an analysis of replicates provides a good indication of underestimation of errors in simulation results. The relationship between the number of samples and replicates is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Xifu & Croke, Barry & Roberts, Stephen & Jakeman, Anthony, 2021. "Comparing methods of randomizing Sobol′ sequences for improving uncertainty of metrics in variance-based global sensitivity estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:210:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021000636
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107499
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832021000636
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107499?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sobol’, I.M. & Tarantola, S. & Gatelli, D. & Kucherenko, S.S. & Mauntz, W., 2007. "Estimating the approximation error when fixing unessential factors in global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 957-960.
    2. Kucherenko, Sergei & Feil, Balazs & Shah, Nilay & Mauntz, Wolfgang, 2011. "The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(4), pages 440-449.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Zhirui & Wang, Jiyang, 2023. "A wind speed prediction system based on new data preprocessing strategy and improved multi-objective optimizer," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kucherenko, S. & Song, S., 2017. "Different numerical estimators for main effect global sensitivity indices," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 222-238.
    2. Matieyendou Lamboni, 2018. "Global sensitivity analysis: a generalized, unbiased and optimal estimator of total-effect variance," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 361-386, March.
    3. Lamboni, M. & Iooss, B. & Popelin, A.-L. & Gamboa, F., 2013. "Derivative-based global sensitivity measures: General links with Sobol’ indices and numerical tests," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 45-54.
    4. Wei, Pengfei & Lu, Zhenzhou & Song, Jingwen, 2015. "Variable importance analysis: A comprehensive review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 399-432.
    5. Lo Piano, Samuele & Ferretti, Federico & Puy, Arnald & Albrecht, Daniel & Saltelli, Andrea, 2021. "Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Xiao, Sinan & Lu, Zhenzhou & Wang, Pan, 2018. "Multivariate global sensitivity analysis for dynamic models based on wavelet analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 20-30.
    7. Kucherenko, Sergei & Song, Shufang & Wang, Lu, 2019. "Quantile based global sensitivity measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 35-48.
    8. Borgonovo, E., 2010. "Sensitivity analysis with finite changes: An application to modified EOQ models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 127-138, January.
    9. Matieyendou Lamboni, 2020. "Uncertainty quantification: a minimum variance unbiased (joint) estimator of the non-normalized Sobol’ indices," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 1939-1970, October.
    10. David, Viviane & Joachim, Sandrine & Tebby, Cleo & Porcher, Jean-Marc & Beaudouin, Rémy, 2019. "Modelling population dynamics in mesocosms using an individual-based model coupled to a bioenergetics model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 55-66.
    11. Sobol' Ilya M. & Shukhman Boris V., 2007. "On Global Sensitivity Indices: Monte Carlo Estimates Affected by Random Errors," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 89-97, April.
    12. Medeiros-Sousa, Antônio Ralph & Lange, Martin & Mucci, Luis Filipe & Marrelli, Mauro Toledo & Grimm, Volker, 2024. "Modelling the transmission and spread of yellow fever in forest landscapes with different spatial configurations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 489(C).
    13. Lambert, Romain S.C. & Lemke, Frank & Kucherenko, Sergei S. & Song, Shufang & Shah, Nilay, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis using sparse high dimensional model representations generated by the group method of data handling," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 42-54.
    14. Deman, G. & Konakli, K. & Sudret, B. & Kerrou, J. & Perrochet, P. & Benabderrahmane, H., 2016. "Using sparse polynomial chaos expansions for the global sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy in a multi-layered hydrogeological model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 156-169.
    15. Viviane M. Gomes & Joao R. B. Paiva & Marcio R. C. Reis & Gabriel A. Wainer & Wesley P. Calixto, 2019. "Mechanism for Measuring System Complexity Applying Sensitivity Analysis," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-12, April.
    16. Chen, Xin & Molina-Cristóbal, Arturo & Guenov, Marin D. & Riaz, Atif, 2019. "Efficient method for variance-based sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 97-115.
    17. Wu, Zeping & Wang, Donghui & Okolo N, Patrick & Hu, Fan & Zhang, Weihua, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 171-179.
    18. Liu, Yaning & Yousuff Hussaini, M. & Ökten, Giray, 2016. "Accurate construction of high dimensional model representation with applications to uncertainty quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 281-295.
    19. Marco Bianchetti & Sergei Kucherenko & Stefano Scoleri, 2015. "Pricing and Risk Management with High-Dimensional Quasi Monte Carlo and Global Sensitivity Analysis," Papers 1504.02896, arXiv.org.
    20. Roux, Sébastien & Loisel, Patrice & Buis, Samuel, 2019. "A filter-based approach for global sensitivity analysis of models with functional inputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 119-128.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:210:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021000636. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.