IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v208y2021ics0951832020308863.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fragility analysis and probabilistic performance evaluation of nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure

Author

Listed:
  • Jin, Song
  • Gong, Jinxin

Abstract

Based on the detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the nuclear containment structure, this study presents fragility analysis and probabilistic performance evaluation of the nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure. To realize automatic running of nonlinear finite element analysis of the nuclear containment structure, Python and Matlab scripts are developed. Confidence intervals of fragility parameters are estimated by the statistical inference method and bootstrap method. An analytical method for constructing the confidence interval of the fragility curve is proposed in this study, and confidence interval of the fragility curve predicted by the proposed method is compared with the bootstrap method. Moreover, statistics of the cumulative failure probability of the nuclear containment structure are estimated by bootstrap method and the proposed Taylor series expansion method . Finally, probabilistic safety margins of the nuclear containment structure are evaluated by the median value method and confidence interval method. Results indicate that statistical uncertainty has almost no effect on the mean value of the fragility parameters. However, statistical uncertainty has some effects on the variability of the fragility parameterβS. In general, the influence of statistical uncertainty on fragility parameterβSis greater than that of fragility parameterPm. Confidence intervals of Pm estimated by the statistical inference method and bootstrap method are almost the same, and statistical inference method overestimates the confidence interval of fragility parameterβS. The proposed method for constructing confidence interval provides almost the same prediction of the confidence interval of the fragility curve as the bootstrap method. In general, statistics of the cumulative failure probability of the nuclear containment structure calculated by the bootstrap method and the proposed Taylor series expansion method are almost the same. The difference between the safety margin calculated by the median value method and the safety margin with 95% confidence level calculated by confidence interval method is negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Song & Gong, Jinxin, 2021. "Fragility analysis and probabilistic performance evaluation of nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:208:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308863
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020308863
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107400?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwag, Shinyoung & Gupta, Abhinav & Dinh, Nam, 2018. "Probabilistic risk assessment based model validation method using Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-393.
    2. Seyed Mojtaba Hoseyni & Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni & Faramarz Yousefpour & Kaveh Karimi, 2017. "Probabilistic analysis of containment structural performance in severe accidents," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 8(3), pages 625-634, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xinbo & Gong, Jinxin, 2024. "Probabilistic evaluation of the leak-tightness function of the nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2024. "Probabilistic capacity models and fragility estimate for NRC and UHSC panels subjected to contact blast," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Dhulipala, Somayajulu L.N. & Shields, Michael D. & Chakroborty, Promit & Jiang, Wen & Spencer, Benjamin W. & Hales, Jason D. & Labouré, Vincent M. & Prince, Zachary M. & Bolisetti, Chandrakanth & Che, 2022. "Reliability estimation of an advanced nuclear fuel using coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Zheng, Zhi & Tian, Aonan & Pan, Xiaolan & Ji, Duofa & Wang, Yong, 2024. "The damage-based fragility analysis and probabilistic safety assessment of containment under internal pressure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Liu, Jiaxin & Yu, Deping & Yang, Taibo & Liu, Caixue & Wang, Guangjin & Liu, Xiaoming, 2023. "Discovering the causes for the change of the vibration characteristics of the core support barrel in PWR nuclear power plants: A combined investigation based on ex-core neutron noise analysis and nume," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shinyoung Kwag & Jinsung Kwak & Hwanho Lee & Jinho Oh & Gyeong-Hoi Koo, 2019. "Enhancement in the Seismic Performance of a Nuclear Piping System using Multiple Tuned Mass Dampers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Bodda, Saran Srikanth & Gupta, Abhinav & Dinh, Nam, 2020. "Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Wang, Chong & Matthies, Hermann G., 2019. "Novel model calibration method via non-probabilistic interval characterization and Bayesian theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 84-92.
    4. Takeda, Satoshi & Kitada, Takanori, 2021. "Simple method based on sensitivity coefficient for stochastic uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Zheng, Zhi & Tian, Aonan & Pan, Xiaolan & Ji, Duofa & Wang, Yong, 2024. "The damage-based fragility analysis and probabilistic safety assessment of containment under internal pressure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. DeJesus Segarra, Jonathan & Bensi, Michelle & Modarres, Mohammad, 2023. "Multi-unit seismic probabilistic risk assessment: A Bayesian network perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    7. Kwag, Shinyoung & Park, Junhee & Choi, In-Kil, 2020. "Development of efficient complete-sampling-based seismic PSA method for nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    8. Kwag, Shinyoung & Choi, Eujeong & Eem, Seunghyun & Ha, Jeong-Gon & Hahm, Daegi, 2021. "Toward improvement of sampling-based seismic probabilistic safety assessment method for nuclear facilities using composite distribution and adaptive discretization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Liming Mu & Yingzhi Zhang & Qiyan Zhang, 2023. "Risk Evaluation Method Based on Fault Propagation and Diffusion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-16, September.
    10. Wu, Xingguang & Huang, Huirong & Xie, Jianyu & Lu, Meixing & Wang, Shaobo & Li, Wang & Huang, Yixuan & Yu, Weichao & Sun, Xiaobo, 2023. "A novel dynamic risk assessment method for the petrochemical industry using bow-tie analysis and Bayesian network analysis method based on the methodological framework of ARAMIS project," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    11. Liting Jing & Qingqing Xu & Tao Sun & Xiang Peng & Jiquan Li & Fei Gao & Shaofei Jiang, 2020. "Conceptual Scheme Decision Model for Mechatronic Products Driven by Risk of Function Failure Propagation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-28, September.
    12. Suo, Weilan & Wang, Lin & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    13. Yang, Qing & Zou, Xingqi & Ye, Yunting & Yao, Tao, 2022. "Evaluating the criticality of the product development project portfolio network from the perspective of risk propagation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:208:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308863. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.