IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v202y2020ics0951832020305317.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probability damage calculation of building targets under the missile warhead strike

Author

Listed:
  • ZHAI, Cheng-lin
  • CHEN, Xiao-wei

Abstract

Quantification of the target damage under missile striking is not only a key issue in the field of damage, but also an important basis for the attack strategy evaluation. Based on Monte Carlo method, an improved quantitative method of building target probability damage is proposed in this study. By analyzing the relationship between landing points of the warhead and damage contour lines of the target, this method can quickly, accurately and reliably evaluate the percentage of damaged area Pd of the target under a warhead attack. Firstly, the method takes the percentage of damaged area Pd as a standard to measure the damage degree of the building target, and determines how the percentage of damaged area Pd is related to overpressure Ps and impulse i. Secondly, based on different target scales and the TNT equivalents of the missile warhead, the evaluated target is discretized and corresponding grid division criteria are formulated. Thirdly, building targets with different equivalent areas are taken as objects, and the percentage of the damaged area of each target under different landing points is calculated. Landing points with the same percentage of damaged area Pd are connected to obtain damage contour lines of respective targets. Finally, Monte Carlo method is used to simulate missile landing points, which are distributed in the form of a two-dimensional normal distribution, where the distribution center point is the ideal landing point. Combined with the damage contour line, the damage probability value under the arbitrary percentage of the damaged area of each target can be obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • ZHAI, Cheng-lin & CHEN, Xiao-wei, 2020. "Probability damage calculation of building targets under the missile warhead strike," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305317
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020305317
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D., 2019. "A probabilistic risk-acceptance model for assessing blast and fragmentation safety hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Kim, Wongon & Yoon, Heonjun & Lee, Guesuk & Kim, Taejin & Youn, Byeng D., 2020. "A new calibration metric that considers statistical correlation: Marginal Probability and Correlation Residuals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Russo, Paola & Parisi, Fulvio, 2016. "Risk-targeted safety distance of reinforced concrete buildings from natural-gas transmission pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 57-66.
    4. Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio & Salzano, Ernesto, 2015. "Vulnerability of industrial facilities to attacks with improvised explosive devices aimed at triggering domino scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 53-62.
    5. Shields, Michael D., 2018. "Adaptive Monte Carlo analysis for strongly nonlinear stochastic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 207-224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D., 2019. "A probabilistic risk-acceptance model for assessing blast and fragmentation safety hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Kishore, Katchalla Bala & Gangolu, Jaswanth & Ramancha, Mukesh K. & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Performance-based probabilistic deflection capacity models and fragility estimation for reinforced concrete column and beam subjected to blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Khastgir, Siddartha & Brewerton, Simon & Thomas, John & Jennings, Paul, 2021. "Systems Approach to Creating Test Scenarios for Automated Driving Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Ussama Assad & Muhammad Arshad Shehzad Hassan & Umar Farooq & Asif Kabir & Muhammad Zeeshan Khan & S. Sabahat H. Bukhari & Zain ul Abidin Jaffri & Judit Oláh & József Popp, 2022. "Smart Grid, Demand Response and Optimization: A Critical Review of Computational Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-36, March.
    6. Hossein Shayeghi & Elnaz Shahryari & Mohammad Moradzadeh & Pierluigi Siano, 2019. "A Survey on Microgrid Energy Management Considering Flexible Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-26, June.
    7. Yin, Yuanbo & Yang, Hao & Duan, Pengfei & Li, Luling & Zio, Enrico & Liu, Cuiwei & Li, Yuxing, 2022. "Improved quantitative risk assessment of a natural gas pipeline considering high-consequence areas," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    8. Zhang, Laobing & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Bin & Qiu, Xiaogang, 2019. "CCP game: A game theoretical model for improving the scheduling of chemical cluster patrolling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. IAIANI, Matteo & TUGNOLI, Alessandro & BONVICINI, Sarah & COZZANI, Valerio, 2021. "Analysis of Cybersecurity-related Incidents in the Process Industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    10. Paola Russo & Alessandra De Marco & Fulvio Parisi, 2020. "Assessment of the Damage from Hydrogen Pipeline Explosions on People and Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-15, September.
    11. Marroni, Giulia & Casini, Leonardo & Bartolucci, Andrea & Kuipers, Sanneke & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2024. "Development of fragility models for process equipment affected by physical security attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    12. Celano, Francesca & Dolšek, Matjaž, 2021. "Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    13. Argenti, Francesca & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2018. "Vulnerability assessment of chemical facilities to intentional attacks based on Bayesian Network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 515-530.
    14. Chen, Yinuo & Xie, Shuyi & Tian, Zhigang, 2022. "Risk assessment of buried gas pipelines based on improved cloud-variable weight theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    15. Marks, Nicholas A & Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D. & Stirling, Chris G., 2021. "Airblast variability and fatality risks from a VBIED in a complex urban environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    16. Qiu, Qingan & Cui, Lirong & Gao, Hongda & Yi, He, 2018. "Optimal allocation of units in sequential probability series systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 351-363.
    17. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2019. "Low-capacity utilization of process plants: A cost-robust approach to tackle man-made domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    18. Jung, Yongsu & Lee, Ikjin, 2021. "Optimal design of experiments for optimization-based model calibration using Fisher information matrix," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Yoo, Yeongmin & Jung, Ui-Jin & Han, Yong Ha & Lee, Jongsoo, 2021. "Data Augmentation-Based Prediction of System Level Performance under Model and Parameter Uncertainties: Role of Designable Generative Adversarial Networks (DGAN)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    20. Nguyen, Hoang & Bui, Xuan-Nam & Topal, Erkan, 2023. "Reliability and availability artificial intelligence models for predicting blast-induced ground vibration intensity in open-pit mines to ensure the safety of the surroundings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.